Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Singapore shares weaken, Ezion falls 4 pct: Reuters

Singapore shares logged broad based declines, led by property developer CapitaLand and Thai Beverage, as regional bourses fell on the increasing likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown.

In the broader market, shares in Ezion Holdings lost 3.8 percent after the oilfield services firm proposed a restructuring under which it would inject its marine supply base business into Ocean Sky International Ltd and acquire 45.15 percent of the enlarged share capital of Ocean Sky. ...

The Straits Times Index shed 0.6 percent to 3,190.2, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 1.1 percent.

DBS Vickers Securities said the Singapore benchmark's pullback from its recent high of 3,260 signalled the start of a consolidation band between 3,150 and 3,250. It pegged a year-end target of 3,330 or a valuation of 13.9 times 2014 earnings.

" The year-end objective is on the assumption that the upcoming deadline to raise the US debt ceiling is met and there is little/no net forward earnings downgrade for STI component stocks in the upcoming 3Q results season," it said in a report.

 

FYI - China Sept final HSBC PMI at 50.2 on firmer exports.

 

shutdown not impossible but also impossible

 

Funds continued to flow into Asia. Said Citi Research. U.S.$2.6 bil of purchases in Asia last week, the fouth week of net in-flow.

Interest muted in blus chips stk, while penny stks had their day in the sun. Penny stocks are likely to remain in play....

teeth53      ( Date: 28-Sep-2013 11:29) Posted: S'pore luring top pte equity firms. Ever core the latest to setup shop here. Following the arrival last year of industry giants KKR & Co n the Blackstone GRP. KKR & Co just finished raising S$7.5 bil to invest in Asia, smaller, more specialized funds. Quadria Cap based in S'pore is focusing on healthcare investments. Private equity in Asia has grown over the years n is now a US$431.2 bail asset class, comprises 13% of the global industry.

 

Political leaders in Washington are not inspiring much confidence lately. And because of that, investors have been shying away from the stock market.

A possible govt shutdown and a rapidly approaching debt limit could prevent the govt from paying all its bills.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-29/government-shutdown-nears-with-house-vote-on-obamacare.html

U.S. govt hurtled toward a partial shutdown for the first time in 17 years as Congress deadlocked over Republicans? insistence on delaying the 2010 health-care law.

House voted 231-192 just after midnight today to stop many of the Affordable Care Act?s central provisions for one year and tie that to an extension of government funding through Dec. 15. Senate Democrats said they will reject the plan, and President Barack Obama said he would veto it.

 

October will be a volatile month meaning money to be made for traders...trade with care though...the long and short of the game

 

have been posting regarding the STI in sg talk thread:

http://sgtalk.org/mybb/Thread-Straits-Times-Index?page=9

Find it more engaging/challenging to forecast what the STI might do in the future. And hopefully, helpful for trading along the way 

As a sample, the lastest post was on 27/9/13:

  Next Monday will be the last trading day of the 3rd quarter.

Wonder what is the Q4 outlook of the local market by research teams of Securities firms? If anyone is able to share, that will be interesting.

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My view is that the STI should be on an upward trend in Q4. Probably all the way into next year.

The starting point for the move up is likely to be sometime in October, which means there needs to be a bottom first.
As mentioned many times in previous posts, the earlier part of October may be important for a low. 

(not so likely, but an alternative time for a low in October may be around the 18th. Incidentally US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew warned that the US government will have exhaused its borrowing authority by 17 October. Lots of politics involved, and in such a major fiscal showdown, nobody escapes the consequences, not even our mighty STI  )

Looking ahead, both New Years in 2014 may be important time periods to watch for the STI, probably for tops. 
More specifically, right after the traditional New Year, and say one week after the Chinese New Year.

As usual, the market is always right.



[current index = 3217] 

 

 

S'pore luring top pte equity firms. Ever core the latest to setup shop here. Following the arrival last year of industry giants KKR & Co n the Blackstone GRP. KKR & Co just finished raising S$7.5 bil to invest in Asia, smaller, more specialized funds. Quadria Cap based in S'pore is focusing on healthcare investments.
Private equity in Asia has grown over the years n is now a US$431.2 bail asset class, comprises 13% of the global industry.

 

Volatility is the name of the game. RBB!

 

 

U.S. Stocks Fall as Budget-Impasse Concerns Grow

U.S. stocks fell, giving the Standard & Poor?s 500 Index its first weekly drop since August, as concern grew that the budget impasse will hurt economic growth in the world?s largest economy.

The S& P 500 (SPX) fell 0.4 percent to 1,691.75 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 70.06 points, or 0.5 percent to 15,258.24. About 5.5 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 5.7 percent below the three-month average.

?There is nothing in the economic data I can see that tells me I should worry about a recession,? Sam Wardwell, an investment strategist at Pioneer Investments in Boston, said in a phone interview. His firm oversees about $217 billion. ?A government shutdown would be a fiscal cliff that?s big enough in this case to drive the economy into a recession and I think that the market is increasingly worried about that risk because the risk seems to be rising.?

The S& P 500 dropped six of the past seven sessions, including a 1.1 percent slide this week, amid the Congressional impasse over the budget that threatens to shut down the government. The index rose 0.3 percent yesterday, snapping its longest losing streak this year, after an unexpected drop in jobless-benefit claims.

Budget Showdown

The U.S. Senate voted today to finance the government through Nov. 15 after removing language to choke off funding for the health care law. The bill now returns to the House, setting up a weekend of negotiating and brinkmanship that could continue until spending authority expires on Sept. 30.

Congress must also reach a deal to avoid hitting the limit on the government?s ability to borrow. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said the extraordinary measures being used to avoid breaching the debt ceiling ?will be exhausted no later than Oct. 17.? Failure to increase the debt cap could lead to a downgrade of the government?s credit rating.

President Barack Obama said that Congress?s failure to approve funding to keep the government open and an increase in the debt ceiling would have a destabilizing effect on the economy.

A federal shutdown would cut fourth-quarter economic growth by as much as 1.4 percentage points depending on its length, economists said. The Office of Management and Budget estimated 30 days of shutdowns in 1995 and 1996 cost more than $1.4 billion, or $2.09 billion in today?s dollars.

Portfolio Rebalancing

Today?s slide trimmed the S& P 500?s third-quarter rally to 5.3 percent. That compared with a 0.7 percent loss in U.S. Treasuries, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Bank of America Corp. Investors should expect $23.5 billion in selling of equities and buying of bonds as pension fund managers rebalance their portfolios at the end of the third quarter, Ramon Verastegui, head of engineering and strategy at Societe Generale SA in New York, wrote in a Sept. 25 note.

?The momentum isn?t terrible, but has basically been progressively weakening,? Jim Welsh, a market strategist who helps oversee $5.7 billion at Forward Management LLC in San Francisco, said in a phone interview. ?The market is vulnerable to the largest correction so far this year, and it just comes down to what kind of news shows up, whether it turns out to be because of Congress, or whatever.?

Fed Watch

The S& P 500?s biggest retreat in 2013 was the 5.8 percent slide that started May 21, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke first suggested the central bank could cut monetary stimulus this year. The gauge is down 2 percent since closing at a record Sept. 18, after the Fed unexpectedly refrained from slowing its monthly bond purchases. The stimulus has helped the S& P 500 rally as much as 155 percent from its 2009 low.

Investors have been weighing data to determine whether economic growth is strong enough to prompt the Fed to begin tapering at its next meeting in October. Fed Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said today he wants to see more momentum in the economy before making cuts.

The showdown in Washington ?creates uncertainty about the fiscal outlook and may exert a restraining influence on household and business spending,? he said.

A report today indicated consumer spending rose in August for a fourth consecutive month, as a pickup in incomes bolstered the biggest part of the economy. Separate data showed confidence among consumers declined to a five-month low in September as Americans? views on the economy dimmed.

 

Obama Stripped to Skeleton Staff in a Government Shutdown

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- A government shutdown means President Barack Obama will have fewer people to cook meals, do the laundry, clean the floors or change the light bulbs, according to a White House contingency plan.

About three-fourths of president?s 1701-person staff would be sent home. The national security team would be cut back, fewer economists would be tracking the economy and there wouldn?t be as many budget officials to track spending. White House policy decisions on the environment and drug policy might get postponed, as the executive mansion struggles to cope with a shutdown of the government.

?If Congress chooses not to pass a budget by Monday -- the end of the fiscal year -- they will shut down the government, along with many vital services that the American people depend on,? Obama said today in the White House briefing room.

Lawmakers have reached an impasse in their search for compromise legislation to fund the government. The House and Senate have passed different versions of the bill, which must be reconciled and approved by the Oct. 1 start of the new fiscal year or the government would shut down.

The congressional dispute would leave the White House with a bare-bones staff, according to the plan submitted yesterday.

The executive office of the president would designate approximately 436 employees as ?excepted,? or exempt from furlough to perform their jobs. The remaining 1,265 employees would be sent home.

President Exempt

The president and the vice president are exempt from furlough.

Work will continue ?with a limited number of employees to sustain minimal excepted operations,? according to the plan.

Like other agencies, most White House workers are being directed to work on the first day of the shutdown for about four hours winding down activities, securing and closing computer files before going home.

Top White House aides, political appointees and officials requiring Senate confirmation are permitted to work. Of the total, 438 people work directly for the president. Under a shutdown, 129 could continue working, according to the contingency plan.

Vice President Joe Biden, who has a staff of 24, would have had to make do with 12.

Of the 90 people who maintain the president?s family living quarters, only 15 would remain to provide ?minimum maintenance and support.?

Obama?s national security staff of 66 would be cut to 42. Similar staff cuts would be imposed at the White House Office of Management and Budget, the Council on Environmental Quality, the Council of Economic Advisers and the Office of National Drug Control Policy, which are all part of the president?s executive office.

Agencies throughout the federal government have submitted contingency plans to the budget office to be implemented in the event of a shutdown. It marks the second time in Obama?s presidency this has happened -- many of this year?s plans track closely with preparations put together during a similar scenario in 2011.

 

 

World Markets

 

World Markets

 

Obama famous word. " I will not negotiate" . Congress said....

U.S. debt ceiling to rise Vs Obamacare.....Vs A U.S shutdown.

Penny's  kena hit.  Today, esp is Friday, alot traded red into -ve territories.


 

 

 

Shutdown Would Shave Fourth-Quarter U.S. Growth as Much as 1.4%

 

Short sell orders executed on 27 September 2013

http://www.sgx.com/wps/wcm/connect/sgx_en/home/market_info/short_sale/short_sale_daily/DailyShortSell20130927.txt

 

Market Snapshot - Markets Watch DC Drama as Stocks Get Jobs Boost

Written By Stock Fanatic on Friday, September 27, 2013 | 9/27/2013

 

$5.25 Million For Senate Hair Care And 21 Other Ways Politicians Are Living The High Life At Your Expense



If you want to live the high life, you don't have to become a rap star, a professional athlete or a Wall Street banker.  All it really takes is winning an election.  Right now, more than half of all the members of Congress are millionaires, and most of them leave " public service" far wealthier than when they entered it.  Since most of them have so much money, you would think that they would be willing to do a little " belt-tightening" for the sake of the American people.  After all, things are supposedly " extremely tight" in Washington D.C. right now.  In fact, just the other day Nancy Pelosi insisted that there were " no more cuts to make" to the federal budget.  But even as they claim that things are so tough right now, our politicians continue to live the high life at the expense of U.S. taxpayers.  The statistics that I am about to share with you are very disturbing.  Please share them with everyone that you know.  The American people deserve the truth.

According to the Weekly Standard, an absolutely insane amount of money is being spent on the " hair care needs" of U.S. Senators...

Keep in mind that there are only 100 U.S. Senators, and many of them don't have much hair left at this point.

But hair care is just the tip of the iceberg.  The following are 21 other ways that our politicians are living the high life at your expense...

#1 According to Roll Call's annual survey of Congressional wealth, the super wealthy in Congress just continue to get much wealthier even though they are supposedly dedicating their lives to " public service" ...

#2 Amazingly, the 50th most wealthy member of Congress has a net worth of 6.14 million dollars.

#3 At this point, more than half of those " serving the American people" in Congress are millionaires.

#4 In one recent year, an average of $4,005,900 of U.S. taxpayer money was spent on " personal" and " office" expenses per U.S. Senator.

#5 Once they leave Washington, former members of Congress continue to collect huge checks for the rest of their lives...

#6 Speaker of the House John Boehner would bring home a yearly pension of  close to $85,000 if he left Congress when his current term ends in 2014.

#7 At this point, quite a few former lawmakers are collecting federal pensions for life worth at least $100,000 annually.  That list includes such notable names as Newt Gingrich, Bob Dole, Trent Lott, Dick Gephardt and Dick Cheney.

#8 The U.S. government is spending approximately 3.6 million dollars a year to support the lavish lifestyles of former presidents such as George W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

#9 Nearly 500,000 federal employees now make at least $100,000 a year.

#10 During one recent year, the average federal employee in the Washington D.C. area received total compensation worth more than $126,000.

#11 During one recent year, compensation for federal employees came to a grand total of approximately 447 billion dollars.

#12 If you can believe it, there are 77,000 federal workers that make more than the governors of their own states do.

#13 When Joe Biden and his staff took a trip to London, the hotel bill cost U.S. taxpayers $459,388.65.

#14 Joe Biden and his staff also stopped in Paris for one night.  The hotel bill for that one night came to $585,000.50.

#15 When Biden and his staff visited Moscow for two days in 2011, the total hotel bill came to $665,445.00.

#16 During 2012, the salaries of Barack Obama?s three climate change advisers combined came to a grand total of more than $370,000.

#17 Overall, 139 different White House staffers were making at least $100,000 during 2012, and there were 20 staffers that made the maximum of $172,200.

#18 It is estimated that the trip that the Obamas took to Africa cost U.S. taxpayers about 100 million dollars.

#19 The Obamas only have one dog named " Bo" , but the White House " dog handler" reportedly makes $102,000 per year and sometimes he is even flown to where the Obamas are vacationing so that he can take care of the dog.

#20 There is always at least one projectionist at the White House 24 hours a day just in case there is someone that wants to watch a movie.  Apparently turning on a DVD player is too much to ask.

#21 In one recent year, more than 1.4 billion dollars was spent on the Obamas.  Meanwhile, British taxpayers only spent about 58 million dollars on the entire royal family.

So who pays for all of this extravagance?

The American people do of course.

Unfortunately, what most of our politicians fail to understand is that most families are  struggling tremendously right now.

This week, Yahoo featured the story of a 77-year-old former executive that is now flipping burgers and serving drinks to make ends meet.  He says that he now earns in a week what he once earned in a single hour, but he is thankful to have a job in this economic environment...

So many Americans are barely making it from month to month at this point.  Most people work very, very hard for their money, and it is very discouraging to see our politicians waste our hard-earned tax dollars so frivolously.

Fortunately, there are signs that the American people are starting to get fed up with all of this.  According to a stunning new Gallup survey, more Americans than ever before (60 percent) believe that the federal government has too much power.

So what do you think?