Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

all red red...no eye see.

 

Don't worry be hapi hapi....
They know what to do.....

Have a great sleep!!!
早 睡 早 起 身 体 好 ！
早 睡 的 鸟 儿 有 大 肥 吃 ！

Huat Arh!
大 丰 收 ！

 

Recovering some grounds at the moment.

gavinl      ( Date: 30-Sep-2013 21:40) Posted: Wont closed very red. Peter_Pan      ( Date: 30-Sep-2013 21:32) Posted: US markets plunge at open.

 

Wont closed very red.

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 30-Sep-2013 21:32) Posted: US markets plunge at open.

 

US markets plunge at open.

 

Me think so too but it seems to me all markets overly reacted today. God knows what may come tomorrow. Lol

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 30-Sep-2013 20:55) Posted: I dont think will shutdown. It is different from 17 years ago now. All markets are connected now, they will ultimately compromise. gavinl      ( Date: 30-Sep-2013 20:23) Posted: Does anyone here believe US goverment will shut down? Would like to see your view. Anyone may contribute.

 

I dont think will shutdown. It is different from 17 years ago now. All markets are connected now, they will ultimately compromise.

gavinl      ( Date: 30-Sep-2013 20:23) Posted: Does anyone here believe US goverment will shut down? Would like to see your view. Anyone may contribute.

 

Lol. Funny view but possible.

Hawkeye      ( Date: 30-Sep-2013 20:27) Posted: Ya! United States you know! They dare to do everything, Cow Boy! Geronimo! Alamo! War! Ha ha ha ha !!!

 

Ya!

United States you know! They dare to do everything, Cow Boy! Geronimo! Alamo! War!

Ha ha ha ha !!!

 

Does anyone here believe US goverment will shut down? Would like to see your view. Anyone may contribute.

 

Short sell orders executed on 30 September 2013 

http://www.sgx.com/wps/wcm/connect/sgx_en/home/market_info/short_sale/short_sale_daily/DailyShortSell20130930.txt

 

My Market View  The views expressed here by the contributor does not belong to ShareJunction. Straits Times Index might be in consolidation ... Contributed by Jay Chia 30-Sep Straits Times Index might be in consolidation mode this week. Last week was a week of retracement for STI as the market started to digest the impact of delaying the tapering. The market brought out another set of worries this time round delaying of tapering might result in deeper deficit in government spending. Many were worried about the impact and chose to flee from the market as sold into strength. Hence, STI started the week with a gap down action which STI failed to rebound beyond it for the next 2 days. On Thursday, STI broke 3200 level and attempted to test its next support at 3180 level which it rebounded off after testing it intraday. This intraday rebound had attracted bargain hunters to enter the market which helped STI to recover back above 3200 level again. For the week, STI was seen dropping 27.35pts and ended at 3210 level. Can STI sustain the rebound this week? Or will STI continues to consolidate downward this week? Let?s get the directions from the chart. Trend: Uptrend, 20ma up, MacD above 0 Support: 3200, 3180 (50ma), 3130   Resistance: 3220 (100ma), 3250 (200ma), 3280, 3310 Observations: Candlestick ?Doji candle. Histogram ? 5 Rs. No divergence signal. RSI ? At 72.6%. Overbought but exiting soon. No divergence signal. Stochastic ? At 28.1%. Bullish crossover formed. Bollinger Band ? Price between mid and upper band. Band still expanding. Conclusion: After strong bullish movement from previous week, STI is now able to have a proper retracement to further confirm its uptrend movement. Gap covering action was seen last week as STI managed to retraced back to the gap support between 3204 ? 3241 levels. This gap support was seen holding firmly at first but this support was broken on Thursday which indicates that STI is not going to form a higher low formation at 3200 level. However, its hammer like candle that was formed on Thursday could indicate that STI might be attempting to form its higher low at 3180 level. Although the bullish reversal might have been confirmed based on Friday?s price action, the doji candle indicates an unconvincing confirmation. Hence, STI could still be in consolidation mode before a clear higher low is formed.   Despite weak movements by STI last week, the mid-term indicators are now showing clear bullish momentum. The 20ma line is now clearly gaining upside momentum while the MacD line continues to stay above 0 level. This bullish mid-term momentum will likely to help STI to maintain its support strength. The short-term indicators on the other hand are showing the other side of the coin. The histogram continues to show bearishness while Stochastic is still on the bearish side. However, the short-term bearish momentum seems to be weakening as Stochastic starts to form a bullish crossover. Surprisingly, the RSI still remains in the overbought region which might cap any rebound currently. Hence, STI might continue to experience attempts of rebound at its support levels while upside could be capped.   It is hard to determine how STI will react this week when there is a mixed result from studying the indicators. Hence, both scenarios should be assumed to be happening this week. First, if STI is unable to continue its rebound this week, it will indicate that STI is facing resistance from its 100ma and 3220 level. This will mean that 3220 will be capping STI?s upside for this week which might force a retracement to happen again for STI. If STI starts to break 3200 support level, it will mean that STI will be retracing back to 3180 support level to test it again. This time round, testing this 3180 support level will further confirm whether this support will be a strong support or not.   The other likely scenario that might happen is STI breaking its 3220 resistance level. If this happens, it will mean that STI had confirmed its higher low formation and STI will be continuing its uptrend moment. However, its upside strength will not be a smooth journey as it will first face 200ma resistance at 3240 level and its recent high resistance at 3250 level. This 2 resistance levels will be the upside target for STI to achieve after breaking 3220 resistance level.   In conclusion, STI might be ready to continue its uptrend momentum yet. It will likely to be seen trading between a range of 3180 to 3220 level this week as a consolidative move in order to form a good support base for upside movement in the later stage. Hence, STI will either retrace to test 3180 support level again or being capped by 3220 resistance level. Confirmation of continuation of uptrend movement for STI will happen only after breaking 3220 resistance level. If STI is able to break 3220 resistance level, its upside might be limited by either 3240 or 3250 resistance level. Therefore, it  will likely to be a tough week for STI.     What to watch out for this week: 1)          Testing of 3180 support level 2)          Testing of 3220 resistance level 3)          Breaking of  3220 resistance level   Trading strategy to adapt right now: -                  Long traders can still consider long positions. -                  Shortists might want to stay sidelines for the momentum.   This market analysis is part of the advisory services that is provided to Jay Chia?s clients. If you would like to find out on what other advisory services Jay Chia provides, please visit www.Jay-Chia.com. You can also contact Jay Chia through the website. Feel free to join Jay Chia?s ?Market Talk Coffee Talk? sessions every bi-weekly. Click here for more details for the FREE session.   *Disclaimer: This analysis is provided to you for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the product mentioned. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting based on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks.

 

Stocks: Government shutdown threat looms

When markets open Monday, it's entirely possible the U.S. government won't open the next day.

The threat of a government shutdown starting on Tuesday appeared more real as the clock ticked and Congress remained split on the contents of a temporary spending measure.

At risk is Friday's release of the monthly jobs report, one of the most-widely watched pieces of economic data.

Bureau of Labor Statistics' commissioner Erica Groshen has indicated that it might not be possible to release the data, because the agency will " suspend all operations" during a shutdown and its " staff will be furloughed."

She said all surveys will " cease" and the " website will not be updated."

Investors will have to deal with more uncertainty and " fewer guide posts" on the economy, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.

Uncertainty over the shutdown cast a pall over markets last week, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S& P 500 down over 1% for the week. It was the first losing week of the month for both indexes, which had recently hit record highs. The Nasdaq managed a slight gain.

Related: Fear & Greed Index

Private jobs data: Investors will have to whet their appetite on the state of U.S. employment via private researchers such as payroll processor ADP's report on Wednesday, followed by the Challenger job cuts report on Thursday.

The government's September employment report, if it is released on Friday, is expected to show a gain of 180,000 jobs in the month. Economists surveyed by Briefing expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 7.3%.

Other economic reports: Other government reports are also in jeopardy in a shutdown. The Commerce Department is scheduled to release reports on construction and factory orders this week. Spokeswoman Sarah Horowitz said the department would not release economic indicators in the event of a shutdown.

Europe: Investors will also get a peek at how the European economy is weathering the austerity measures via the Eurozone unemployment report, due out Tuesday.

Asia: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed on Tuesday, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange is closed from Tuesday to Friday for a National Day celebration.

 

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Slump on Impending Shutdown

U.S. stock-index futures slumped for a second day and Treasuries rose as politicians clashed over the federal budget, threatening a U.S. government shutdown starting tomorrow.

Standard & Poor?s 500 Index futures expiring in December dropped 0.7 percent to 1,675.20 as of 6:42 a.m. in London, heading for the lowest close in three weeks. U.S. 10-year yields fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.60 percent, Bloomberg Bond Trader data show. The 2.5 percent note due in August 2023 rose 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 5/32 as investors sought the relative safety of debt.

Unless lawmakers resolve their differences by the deadline tomorrow, as many as 800,000 federal employees would be on furlough and national parks and Internal Revenue Service call centers may close. Even if Congress resolves the spending fight, lawmakers would immediately move to the next fiscal dispute over raising the $16.7 trillion debt ceiling.

?If they shut down the government, it?s not good for the economy,? said Ali Jalai, a Singapore-based trader at Scotiabank, a unit of Canada?s Bank of Nova Scotia, one of the 21 primary dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve. ?Government bonds are doing better, and I guess stocks are going to do a bit worse. Eventually they?re going to open the government, but there?ll be some damage done.?

The U.S. won?t have enough money to pay all of its bills at some point between Oct. 22 and Oct. 31 without action by Congress, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Debt Limit

A brief government shutdown won?t lead to any significant change of the Treasury Department?s forecast for when the U.S. will breach the debt limit, a Treasury spokeswoman said yesterday in an e-mail. The Treasury has said measures to avoid exceeding the debt ceiling will be exhausted on Oct. 17.

An economic slowdown may keep the Fed from reducing the bond purchases it uses to support the economy, Scotiabank?s Jalai said. The Fed this month unexpectedly stuck to its $85 billion of Treasury and mortgage purchases a month, with Chairman Ben S. Bernanke saying the job market needs to improve.

The Fed will take the first step in reducing its monthly bond purchases in December, according to 59 percent of 41 economists in a Sept. 18-19 survey.

U.S. employers probably added more jobs in September than the prior month and the jobless rate held at the lowest level since 2008, economists said before a report this week.

Payrolls, Manufacturing

Payrolls rose by 180,000 workers, the most since April, after a 169,000 gain the prior month, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Labor Department figures on Oct. 4. Manufacturing (NAPMPMI) grew in August at close to the fastest pace in two years, separate data may show tomorrow.

The debt limit is a bigger problem than a federal shutdown, though the U.S. will probably avoid both, Moody?s Investors Service said in a report today.

?Failure to raise the federal debt limit would have greater adverse financial market and economic consequences than a government shutdown because market participants would perceive an increased probability of a sovereign default,? Steven Hess, a senior vice president at Moody?s in New York, wrote in the report.

The S& P 500 Index fell 1.1 percent in the five days ended Sept. 27 for its first weekly decline since Aug. 30. It has returned 5.9 percent this quarter including reinvested dividends, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The U.S. stock benchmark has surged 21 percent in 2013. American equities this year climbed above the 2007 peak from before the global financial crisis that led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008.

Essential Operations

Bloomberg?s U.S. Treasury Bond Index (BUSY) was little changed for the quarter. It is down 2.4 percent in 2013, reflecting forecasts for the Fed to start reducing its debt purchases.

In a government shutdown, essential operations and programs with dedicated funding would continue. The move would reduce fourth-quarter economic growth by as much as 1.4 percentage points depending on its length, according to economists at Moody?s Analytics Inc.

?Investors are concerned a U.S. government shutdown may hurt the economy, so they?re becoming more risk averse,? said Toshiyuki Kanayama, a senior market analyst at Monex Securities Inc. in Tokyo.

 

Correction is coming! Embrace yourselves and short now! Huat ah

 

long position is for longists

short position is for shortists

no position is for notists

good luck 

 

time to position yourself for tomorrow's trade...volatility the name of the game

 

counting down to shutdown / shutup