Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

New highs almost everyday and almost every posting has 4 stars. I have not seen so many bulls in a long time-no bear in sight. This phenomenon can last until there are no bulls left in town. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.

 

It is really important to remove "pride" when you are trading. What do I mean by that? Usually people will not buy back a stock at a higher price than what they sold at. It is really "pride" which prevents them from buying back.



We always like to get the "ideal price" but the ideal price don't come all the time. I am sure quite a few people who sold Noble Group at $1.20 were waiting for Noble Group to drop back to 95c. Noble Group has been range bound for a long time. Eventually it is going to break out of this "range bound". To me, it is ok to buy back at $1.24 even though you did not get your ideal price and you are buying at a higher price than what you sold at.



Using short term trading for growth stock might mean that you sell off, but you might forget to buy back. When the price has gone above the price what you sold at, for some the more you are not willing to buy back.

  

I feel it is best to stagger your buys at the consolidation phase for potential stocks and don't always need to wait for your "ideal price" 

 

How come suddenly STI crash??

 

many thanks Victorian, great analysis & painstaking post! here is my thumbs up !

 

Hi elizlow, no mention it. If I can be of any wee bit of help to you, just let me know. I will try to help if I am not away. Sad to hear that you was "caught" in Year 2000. I really hope that the market can "return" to normal again. The STI is "gaining" too fast without any evidence for it to be a super bull. But not wanting to make any speculations, I would advise you to start keeping a lookout now for those good FA counters that had resisted in terms of very bad times. Maybe those high dividend counters can also be considered. For me, I am now "focusing" on Cambridge and Sembcorp Industries. If you happen to be looking at Cambridge, do it 1 to 2 weeks later as Brilliant Manufacturing is offloading, and as they had "crosses" below the 5% mark, we won't be able to know how much more will they offload. Wishes you and your family epitome success & happiness.

 

Saving's rate in USA is at the same level as the time of the great depression-Solution? Print more money

 

dun be too hopeful about the coming budget, my crystal ball shows unpleasant surprises.

 

Good morning Rogue-Trader Sir, thanks for yr prompt reply and advice. I know that no one can tell when the bear will overtake  the bull  in this raging mkt. At least, we  are on our toes that the mkt cannot be going up forever and correction is round the corner. After my bad experience in 2000, I don't wish to be caught again. Many thanks again for yr selfless sharing and I salute you, Sir. God bless.

 

I think the 18th Feb budget annoucement will be good for Singaporeans to make up for the GST hike.

And the STI will respond by bull-running again!

 

Hi elizlow, if go by my "calculations", it should be tier 2.5. There should be a "correction" and after this correction, when blue chips run up then it should be in tier 3. If only my mentor is here, he can give superb explanations & analysis. But if this correction "acted" as a catalyst, it might "correct" to such an extent that most counters will "erased" their recent gains and "start" from tier 1 again. But just to let you know that this tier thingie is no longer a factor anymore since irrational & pschyological are the main players now. Even those TAs that i did can't even smell those "manipulators smoke".

 

Hi Victorian,

Thank you for the analysis and useful information.

 

Good evening rogue-trader sir, I refer to yr view on 29.12.06 that   the mkt was in Tier 2.  In view of the recent run up in prices for blue chips, may I have yr advice whether  we are in  3rd tier now. Tks..

 

from a tax point of view, companies can claim tax deductions on the mandatory CPF contributions that they make to employees. This together with the 1% cut in corporate tax will result in less tax collection for the govt.



i think there might be a surprise this budget. GST rise 2% from 1st April 07 while the corporate tax cuts might come in only on 1st Jan 08. Then the mkt will ........ muahahaha

 

everyone of us is expecting a good budget coming 18th feb, i don't think this govt. is that generous, other than 1% cut in corporate tax, there will be increase in CPF. As for the index, it's best to monitor the rest of the gobal index, so far there is no sign of any BEAR but it's very possible for a 10% correction

 

Emerging markets still rocking - for now. US interest rate - stag, predicting 3Q  a cut in it rate by some US analysts reported in today Sunday Times(pg 25), btw now and then some corrction, with each correction it can possible end higher for Dow, just an after tot about FOMC meeting and Mr Ben. (ST Index to test new high).

 

Hi,

Thanks for the comments:). I was wondering why I don't have a spacing between paragraphs. Now I kow I need to press "ENTER" two times:).

I intend to average up only those shares coming from a consolidation phase like ASL Marine and Noble Group. But usually I don't wait for the uptrend when it is consolidating and buy some but not many lots. I shall buy less if the price goes down from my initial buy. Of course if my first buy is 15 lots, it would not be so wise to average up 50 lots on my second buy.

My idea is if I am wrong on any buy, I am not so badly affected as my lots are all staggered. 

 

Note DOW closed flat, where East Asia closed on very positive note, believe it will contiune it run up, so is St index to test it new high and as well as those new ipo play this week. Oversea fund will still pour in at this stage till S'pore Budget day and beyond., just sharing my tot.

 

i am wondering what is the best strategy for times like this-

stock market at all time high, and yet no definite sign of downtrending: are we missing something here? on the upside, perhaps the IR constrution etc is pumping lots of liquidity into singapore plus we have China & India (and vietnam) steaming away at 10% growth, and I heard people considering S$ as safe to park (cf yen,US$)

on the downside there is possible bird flu..

 

hm. yes, definitely. no one knows anything for certain. risk is definitely, definitely there. so always, eyes wide open.

 

Whether buying high or buying low, both have their dangers.

Since no one really knows for sure whether a stock will go up or down tomorrow, or indeed whether there will be an abrupt market crash tomorrow,  it's all still a big risk (ie. it's not a small risk).