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Another aspect of your self denial on your part.
You said Sunny has a lot to learn from this episode to bring Olam to a new high. It is good to know that he is doing reflection. Sunny quoted " We will take stock and see whether we need to slow down, decelerate, recalibrate. We're convinced that we've got a great strategy . . . but we might recalibrate . . . the pace at which we are doing things," Isnt this statement as self admission that something is not working fundamental right?
I reckon investors are waiting in anticipation for the second rebuttal report from Olam. I asked myself " why the management would take such a long time to come out a report.Dont they have a very the experienced team working inside?" Maybe the report is not coming out afterall with fear of more scrutiny and might damper the share price.
I am not here to talk down the company,just that I wish to find out a balance and true views of this counter before any investment.
counter ( Date: 29-Dec-2012 13:17) Posted:
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This is a good article. It clearly points out the weaknesses of Olam, strengths aside. I agree with the author when he says
“In the longer term, the final outcome can be very different in Olam's case. However, this can only happen if it uses the new funds to improve its operations, business model, strategies, capital structure and governance. If it is business as usual for Olam, then it risks ending up the same way as ABC.”
Sunny has a lot to learn from this episode to bring Olam to a new high. It is good to know that he is doing reflection.
" We will take stock and see whether we need to slow down, decelerate, recalibrate. We're convinced that we've got a great strategy . . . but we might recalibrate . . . the pace at which we are doing things," Mr Verghese told The Business Times yesterday
http://www.asiaone.com/A1Business/News/Story/A1Story20121130-386829.html |
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I couldn't agree more with you on this. Do not love a stock. Treat it as a tool to make money. Do not follow blindly.
New123 ( Date: 30-Dec-2012 12:11) Posted:
| end of the day u hv to make yr own decision . Is danger to fall in love with stock or worse still following blindly what others is buying or saying how good to Buy at this moment . |
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It is also important to note that the disclosure of my holdings was made far before 26 Dec 12 10:17. It was made in replies to constant queries from the people shouting fire here. When the disclosure was made, I was still underwater. The price was about $1.40 at the time. Nothing to be proud of but nothing to hide either.
end of the day u hv to make yr own decision . Is danger to fall in love with stock or worse still following blindly what others is buying or saying how good to Buy at this moment .
There is no contradiction here. You find it a contradiction because you have a different understanding of 'long position' and 'for the time being'.
You may think that 'long position' corresponds to a longer time period than 'for the time being'. However, these two terms do not actually refer to any specific time period which means that 'for the time being' can correpond to the same time period as 'long position'.
Octavia ( Date: 30-Dec-2012 11:54) Posted:
26 Dec 12 10:17 : You claimed you have a long position of 600 lots at an average cost of about 1.45 (including commission).
26 Dec 12 13:40 : You said you have done your my research and I think that Olam has good fundamentals.
26 Dec 12 15:13: You changed your outlook to " for time being" as you find Olam is a better bet.
You seem to be contradiction yourself one moment saying you are doing it for long term investment for your lau poa and er zi. Now you your position seemed to have unsettled.Since you are so passionate about this counter,maybe it is good to share with us what intrinsic value or good fundamentals this company posseses?
Thank you.
counter ( Date: 26-Dec-2012 15:13) Posted:
Good point.
I will put my money in the counter that I think will bring me more profit in the short term, if not in the long term. For the time being, I emphasise 'for the time being', I find olam a better bet |
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You mean you can only come up with this stuff after a day.
Can I take it as you are not denying that you have contradicted yourself?
To me, the choice of raising fund is crucial for understanding the objective. In contrast, you think that the idea is a noise and this is probably the source of your confusion. You seem to have different views of the objective at different times.
Our discussion in this forum will not affect the outcome of anything. Neither should this be our purpose. It is to help improve our analytical skills.
Octavia ( Date: 30-Dec-2012 11:00) Posted:
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If you look at the big picture isnt it at the end of the day he is still raising monies from the market ? The Rights Issue...according to Olam...is to pay down the old debts.Irregardless whether the management does it with this complicated package (i.e equities come with bonds and warrants)or not.
On more than one occasion Mr Verghese has said that the firm has $10 billion in liquidity. Why does it need to raise more expensive debt to pay off cheaper debt due next year? Could it not have drawn on its credit lines to repay that debt? My point is that there are many signs of desperation shown by the management which I have highlighted in my earlier thread.
Anyway, I think we should not dwell too much into the company’s choice of raising fund neither should we attempt to ask for views what the company should do or not do.Why cloud yourself with these noises? Our views do not matter to them unless you are a mole planted by the company or my views have detrimental effects to your holdings. The company should seek expert advice from the financial managers, bankers and consultants if needed to.
counter ( Date: 29-Dec-2012 21:24) Posted:
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You seem to be contradicting yourself on the objective of the bonds rights issue.
On 21/12/2012, 10:01, you wrote
“Heavy ownership by retail investors, who are attracted to the high yield, make Olam bonds especially volatile. Olam 2020s are nearly half-owned by retail investors and 2017s have 70 percent retail involvement. During the MW and Olam saga,the bonds are in very distressed state. Hence the main idea behind the fund-raising plan is to " break the negative cycle" of high bond yields filtering through to the equity market. Part of this proceeds will be used to pay up the 2013 maturing bonds. The rights issue will be a short-term positive for the stock as echoed by most analyists.”
However, now you are saying that the objective of the bonds rights issue is to raise money.
Which version of your story should we believe?? |
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26 Dec 12 10:17 : You claimed you have a long position of 600 lots at an average cost of about 1.45 (including commission).
26 Dec 12 13:40 : You said you have done your my research and I think that Olam has good fundamentals.
26 Dec 12 15:13: You changed your outlook to " for time being" as you find Olam is a better bet.
You seem to be contradiction yourself one moment saying you are doing it for long term investment for your lau poa and er zi. Now you your position seemed to have unsettled.Since you are so passionate about this counter,maybe it is good to share with us what intrinsic value or good fundamentals this company posseses?
Thank you.
counter ( Date: 26-Dec-2012 15:13) Posted:
Good point.
I will put my money in the counter that I think will bring me more profit in the short term, if not in the long term. For the time being, I emphasise 'for the time being', I find olam a better bet.
Octavia ( Date: 26-Dec-2012 15:09) Posted:
Wilmar just paid off about US$571 million of Bonds on 18 Dec 2012.
One company just paid off its debt (that means it has money) while the other company, i.e., Olam, keeps asking for money or keeps borrowing money.
On which company would you rather risk your money?
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If you look at the big picture isnt it at the end of the day he is still raising monies from the market ? The Rights Issue...according to Olam...is to pay down the old debts.Irregardless whether the management does it with this complicated package (i.e equities come with bonds and warrants)or not.
On more than one occasion Mr Verghese has said that the firm has $10 billion in liquidity. Why does it need to raise more expensive debt to pay off cheaper debt due next year? Could it not have drawn on its credit lines to repay that debt? My point is that there are many signs of desperation shown by the management which I have highlighted in my earlier thread.
Anyway, I think we should not dwell too much into the company’s choice of raising fund neither should we attempt to ask for views what the company should do or not do.Why cloud yourself with these noises? Our views do not matter to them unless you are a mole planted by the company or my views have detrimental effects to your holdings. The company should seek expert advice from the financial managers, bankers and consultants if needed to.
counter ( Date: 29-Dec-2012 21:24) Posted:
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You seem to be contradicting yourself on the objective of the bonds rights issue.
On 21/12/2012, 10:01, you wrote
“Heavy ownership by retail investors, who are attracted to the high yield, make Olam bonds especially volatile. Olam 2020s are nearly half-owned by retail investors and 2017s have 70 percent retail involvement. During the MW and Olam saga,the bonds are in very distressed state. Hence the main idea behind the fund-raising plan is to " break the negative cycle" of high bond yields filtering through to the equity market. Part of this proceeds will be used to pay up the 2013 maturing bonds. The rights issue will be a short-term positive for the stock as echoed by most analyists.”
However, now you are saying that the objective of the bonds rights issue is to raise money.
Which version of your story should we believe?? |
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TAXES $$$$$$$$$$$$$ ??????
Although he is renting a 6400ft bungalow in Bukit Timah, it does not neccessarily mean that this is all that he can afford.
Anyone with some economics sense should know this.
Are you sure that you are puzzled over this?
Totally agree with you about this opportunist Americano. Have to take him with a pinch of salt.
In 2009 when he moved over to live in S'pore, he was fond of referring himself to be a billionaire, but I was puzzled as to why he could only afford to rent (up to present time) his house in Bukit Timah.
Octavia ( Date: 29-Dec-2012 20:43) Posted:
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It is just coincidental news release, or is it, of big name support from Jim Rogers in the govenment managed sole newspaper here at the end of new funding process.One could think along that line that he moved to Singapore in 2009 probably PR status with Singapore citzenship anytime from the Gov.
You scratch mine and I will do likewise.
counter ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 16:58) Posted:
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I don't ask smart people questions which I already know the answers.
limkt009 ( Date: 29-Dec-2012 21:56) Posted:
Good questions, ask them at their AGM.
counter ( Date: 29-Dec-2012 21:48) Posted:
| If Olam was in need to raise money, why would it launch a bonds rights issue and not an equity rights issue? |
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Good questions, ask them at their AGM.
counter ( Date: 29-Dec-2012 21:48) Posted:
If Olam was in need to raise money, why would it launch a bonds rights issue and not an equity rights issue?
New123 ( Date: 29-Dec-2012 21:43) Posted:
| the first sign is if the comp is having cash flow issue then the comp will be running out of cash to cont the business . This is why they are in the urgent need to raise the $ . Secondly ,If u look into their BS and if for eg if the creditor amount is way above the debtor amount then u have to be v cautious . Lastly ,if their loan /over drafts /bond interest is so high is the profit generated enough to cover the interest need to be paid out each year ? Trade with care . U r trading with yr hard earn $. |
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If Olam was in need to raise money, why would it launch a bonds rights issue and not an equity rights issue?
New123 ( Date: 29-Dec-2012 21:43) Posted:
| the first sign is if the comp is having cash flow issue then the comp will be running out of cash to cont the business . This is why they are in the urgent need to raise the $ . Secondly ,If u look into their BS and if for eg if the creditor amount is way above the debtor amount then u have to be v cautious . Lastly ,if their loan /over drafts /bond interest is so high is the profit generated enough to cover the interest need to be paid out each year ? Trade with care . U r trading with yr hard earn $. |
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the first sign is if the comp is having cash flow issue then the comp will be running out of cash to cont the business . This is why they are in the urgent need to raise the $ . Secondly ,If u look into their BS and if for eg if the creditor amount is way above the debtor amount then u have to be v cautious . Lastly ,if their loan /over drafts /bond interest is so high is the profit generated enough to cover the interest need to be paid out each year ? Trade with care . U r trading with yr hard earn $.
This is proof that you are contradicting yourself.
You really need to sort out your thoughts.
Octavia ( Date: 21-Dec-2012 10:01) Posted:
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Heavy ownership by retail investors, who are attracted to the high yield, make Olam bonds especially volatile. Olam 2020s are nearly half-owned by retail investors and 2017s have 70 percent retail involvement. During the MW and Olam saga,the bonds are in very distressed state. Hence the main idea behind the fund-raising plan is to " break the negative cycle" of high bond yields filtering through to the equity market. Part of this proceeds will be used to pay up the 2013 maturing bonds. The rights issue will be a short-term positive for the stock as echoed by most analyists.
Olam bonds are unrated. The interest rates paid by these bonds go up as the risk rises. That should be your first red flag. If a bond offers an interest rate that is way off the market, it is because there is a high degree of risk involved. Another factor that correlates to default is the bond’s length to maturity. The longer a bond hangs out there the higher the risk of default. This makes sense when you think about it. The longer a bond issuer is exposed to market or economic factors, the greater the odds are that something bad will happen. Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s are the two premiere bond-rating services. If one of these services does not rate a bond, I would pass it. Whether bond or stock,I would rather wait for the dust to settle before committing otherwise ended up holding a lemon.
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You seem to be contradicting yourself on the objective of the bonds rights issue.
On 21/12/2012, 10:01, you wrote
“Heavy ownership by retail investors, who are attracted to the high yield, make Olam bonds especially volatile. Olam 2020s are nearly half-owned by retail investors and 2017s have 70 percent retail involvement. During the MW and Olam saga,the bonds are in very distressed state. Hence the main idea behind the fund-raising plan is to " break the negative cycle" of high bond yields filtering through to the equity market. Part of this proceeds will be used to pay up the 2013 maturing bonds. The rights issue will be a short-term positive for the stock as echoed by most analyists.”
However, now you are saying that the objective of the bonds rights issue is to raise money.
Which version of your story should we believe??
To me, I viewed this as a Sovereign wealth firm rescues an ailing commodities trader.
Two worrying aspects are:
The fact that Olam now has to raise so much money so quickly is clearly an indication that Black’s allegations contained sufficient grains of truth and that the company really did need, now or soon, lots of cash just to survive. Companies in good shape do not make such offerings. Temasek’s full underwriting of the issue shows how desperate it is for Olam to survive.Otherwise it surely would have just ridden out the storm and let its subsequent results reveal that Muddy Waters was wrong. This is one of the pivotal and fundamental aspects in choosing a stock to invest in. Unlike someone here who like to sing praises and counter for wrong reasons just because one is heavily committed and long on this stock.I am certain if the price hit his target he will be the first to run and disappear from the radar.
On Temasek, one would argue that Temasek, is throwing good public money after bad to save the faces of the the Temasek managers who committed so publicly to the Singapore-based Olam in the first place, buying 16 percent of the commodities trader in 2009. Temasek is now being forced to put more money behind Olam to the extent that it may well feel obliged to provide more should this cash infusion prove insufficient. It is now so deep into Olam. If you can recall a couple of years back, the managers have enough records of buying into fashionable stocks near the top and then having to help bail-outs on the way down. UBS was a classic example. GIC, the Government Investment Corporation, backed UBS big time when banking was the flavour of the day, losing massively. Temasek likewise lost heavily on Bank of America. Closer to home, Chartered Semiconductor was created in 1987 as a venture that included Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd, another state-linked company owned by Temasek Holdings.When its shares were first floated in the market in 1999, IPO price was USD $20. 10 years later, it is worth only USD$1.86 per share. At that prices, Temasek may have lose up to S$16 billion dollars from the deal eventually to ATIC.
Instead of cutting its losses now or staying on one side as Olam and Muddy Waters have their war of words, Temasek has chosen to use its financial muscle in a way which might be construed as of more interest to the management of Olam than to the citizens of Singapore.If Temasek saw intrinsic or true value in Olam it did not have to wait until now(when Olam in debacle) to upped it stake.We only can hope Temasek makes the right bet this time.
It is just coincidental news release, or is it, of big name support from Jim Rogers in the govenment managed sole newspaper here at the end of new funding process.One could think along that line that he moved to Singapore in 2009 probably PR status with Singapore citzenship anytime from the Gov.
You scratch mine and I will do likewise.
counter ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 16:58) Posted:
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FAMED investment guru Jim Rogers will be subscribing to the Olam International rights issue, he told The Straits Times.
When asked about his reasons for doing so, Singapore-based MrRogers, who spoke on the phone from Paris on Tuesday, said: " Why not?"
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/showthread.php?356307-Investment-guru-Jim-Rogers-to-take-up-Olam-rights-issue
Obfuscate ( Date: 28-Dec-2012 16:55) Posted:
| It depends what investment mandate he gave his bankers. If it was discretionary, he does not direct his bankers where to invest. He will only find out his positions from his month end statements |
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$1.56
New123 ( Date: 27-Dec-2012 16:49) Posted:
| what will be the ex.rights price going to be tmr? $1.27 ?? |
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