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halo, look at yr ealier post-- firstly, u reponse to whencanchange that capitaland do not follow patterns, and later u respone to me that u are bearish cos yr chart say so....don twist yr words..ok.. i never mention i have a chart or according to my chart..cos i am a FA (80%) TA (20%).
lol... I am saying the pattern you mentioned... hmmm.... Need to be so clear? I can only say you longies thought are very ignorant... lol...
capland ( Date: 18-Apr-2011 12:30) Posted:
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ya lor, that isolator just contradicted himself, just a few posts earlier, he just said Capland DO NOT follow pattern in response to my post from EDGE which had a TA bullish buy call on Capland.........and now he said his charts said....
HAHA!
capland ( Date: 18-Apr-2011 12:30) Posted:
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my dear isolator, u convince me that u are right...but in this stock market, no ones is right or wrong, it is the timing that is important. U pay a price, and u get value later. FA says u right , and u believe it, go ahead. Property cycle is a deep knowledge ones must understand, from country to country. I give u an example- Asia is facing high inflation, BUT in US and Europe, they are having very low inflation. U see , why asia is high inflation and others are having low inflation. Same as property cycle, Bubble in asia , but might not be in US n Europe. Asia should not have any bubble just yet, so long US n Europe are recovering. But it will, when funds flowing back when they find 1) interest rate better in US n Europe 2) property recovering in their own countries 3) Asia have not enough reserve to offset the outflow of funds. Then u will see. Next crisis will exist, and they always will cos markets are always not balance. So, is what u see, for me, no point as we could not control this type or situation and we do not know when. So i see FA in companies instead... their portfolio and their leaders. Look at the insider tradings, capland directors are buying shares since early this year... I hope the company could do so, to reduce the outstanding shares and pushes up the equity funds.
you are right... i may be not neutral as i am in position. But i never instigate others to " long " this counter. Right? u ask my view ealier, i gave to u. But did i ask u to " long" ? No right, i buy for the fundamental > I need to change your property life cycle-- when tightening occurs , the property cycle don change , instead it increased the activity- why easy answer-- buyers rush in before another tighten policy... cycle changes only when the tightening eased, and u see lesser crowd in the show room, and lots of empty units yet to be show, and further decreased in rental. My friend , BTO now is selling like hot cakes..U should visit their showrooms...even spotisswood is selling well above expection...
Isolator ( Date: 18-Apr-2011 12:23) Posted:
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Mmmmm. chart---- i thought u said capland don have pattern ealier...Mmmmmmmmmm
Very simple... My charts say so... It is in downtrends.... I strictly follow my screens.... since last year, it is already starting... There should be a big drop somewhere....
In FA, you can study more on the property life cycle....you know when you have a position, your judgement may not be neutral... Anyway, Enjoy your trade!
capland ( Date: 18-Apr-2011 12:01) Posted:
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If the US tighten the bank reserve n interest rate. Then the crisis will not happen. Alan Greenspan indeed makes a mistake as he too knew that he should increase the interest rate before the property burst.
tightening is one thing. Singapore also tightening, but does it stop people from buying property. ( yesterday news shows pte property goes up instead ) . Look at this- govt has to tighten if it wants the property to appreciate in a stable manner. Then investor will be more confident in the country. I more fear in vietnam, cos the govt seems not to do anything about the inflation... if it react too slow, then bubble will form.
Jackpot2010 ( Date: 18-Apr-2011 11:50) Posted:
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Straits Times Index - 30 Member
Consensus
FYE
Target Price
*
His
(x) FY1 (x)
FY2
(x) Analyst Buy Hold Sell Period Date
CapitaLand Ltd Dec 10 SGD 3.410 4.214 1.8 1.1 11.5 18.9 16.6 22 16 4 2 Q1 26/04/2011
CapitaMalls Asia Ltd Dec 10 SGD 1.880 2.303 1.1 - 17.2 27.2 24.7 16 11 4 1 Q1 21/04/2011
CapitaMall Trust Dec 10 SGD 1.890 2.077 5.0 1.0 22.3 19.5 17.2 23 16 4 3 Q1 20/04/2011
City Developments Ltd Dec 10 SGD 11.600 11.895 0.7 1.4 14.3 15.5 15.0 22 6 10 6 - -
ComfortDelGro Corp Ltd Dec 10 SGD 1.550 1.854 3.5 0.5 14.2 13.5 12.5 17 15 0 2 Q1 13/05/2011
DBS Group Holdings Ltd Dec 10 SGD 14.660 16.798 2.9 1.1 20.6 12.3 10.8 25 19 5 1 Q1 29/04/2011
Fraser and Neave Ltd Sep 10 SGD 6.240 7.300 2.7 1.2 9.5 13.2 12.3 8 7 1 0 Q2 13/05/2011
Genting Singapore PLC Dec 10 SGD 2.090 2.368 0.0 1.0 93.3 22.2 19.0 23 15 5 3 - -
Global Logistic Properties Ltd Mar 10 SGD 2.000 2.595 0.0 #N/A N/A - 25.5 23.3 7 6 0 1 - -
Golden Agri-Resources Ltd Dec 10 SGD 0.695 0.798 1.1 1.5 4.6 13.0 13.3 17 12 2 3 Q1 15/05/2011
Hongkong Land Holdings Ltd Dec 10 USD 7.210 8.243 2.2 1.0 3.4 24.0 23.0 18 12 5 1 S1 28/07/2011
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd Dec 10 SGD 36.700 36.500 3.4 1.0 11.1 11.5 10.3 2 0 2 0 Q1 28/04/2011
Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd Dec 10 USD 45.880 51.400 2.5 0.7 5.3 11.6 10.5 8 4 2 2 - -
Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd Dec 10 USD 27.680 32.250 0.8 0.8 4.9 11.4 10.4 7 4 3 0 - -
Keppel Corp Ltd Dec 10 SGD 12.520 14.092 3.4 1.1 12.3 15.3 14.3 24 23 1 0 Q1 20/04/2011
Neptune Orient Lines Ltd/Singapore Dec 10 SGD 1.940 2.361 2.4 1.3 8.7 9.9 6.9 23 12 6 5 Q1 13/05/2011
Noble Group Ltd Dec 10 SGD 2.150 2.649 1.4 1.5 19.1 14.4 12.2 21 19 1 1 Q1 11/05/2011
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd Dec 10 SGD 9.690 10.917 3.1 1.1 14.7 13.5 12.2 25 19 5 1 - -
Olam International Ltd Jun 10 SGD 2.940 3.469 0.0 1.2 17.0 19.2 15.9 19 14 3 2 Q3 12/05/2011
SembCorp Industries Ltd Dec 10 SGD 5.320 5.940 2.8 1.0 12.0 13.6 12.9 18 13 3 2 Q1 11/05/2011
SembCorp Marine Ltd Dec 10 SGD 5.780 6.233 1.9 1.3 13.9 17.7 17.6 23 18 3 2 Q1 09/05/2011
SIA Engineering Co Ltd Mar 10 SGD 4.190 4.701 4.5 0.8 16.7 17.1 15.9 12 5 7 0 Y 10/05/2011
Singapore Press Holdings Ltd Aug 10 SGD 3.930 4.235 4.1 0.6 15.1 16.4 15.4 16 4 12 0 Q3 12/07/2011
Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd Dec 10 SGD 3.240 3.492 2.2 0.5 19.9 18.2 17.0 14 8 4 2 Q1 15/05/2011
Singapore Telecommunications Ltd Mar 10 SGD 3.060 3.390 4.8 0.8 12.7 12.8 11.9 23 11 10 2 Y 12/05/2011
Singapore Airlines Ltd Mar 10 SGD 14.080 16.809 2.3 0.9 14.0 12.5 11.2 24 17 5 2 Y 30/06/2011
Singapore Exchange Ltd Jun 10 SGD 8.150 9.329 3.4 1.2 28.7 24.6 20.6 22 14 5 3 Q3 19/04/2011
StarHub Ltd Dec 10 SGD 2.830 2.742 7.1 0.6 18.4 15.6 14.7 20 9 6 5 Q1 04/05/2011
United Overseas Bank Ltd Dec 10 SGD 19.580 21.799 3.1 1.2 11.8 11.8 10.8 25 14 10 1 Q1 06/05/2011
Wilmar International Ltd Dec 10 SGD 5.240 5.805 1.0 0.8 20.3 16.8 14.5 23 9 13 1 Q1 13/05/2011
isolators, may i ask what is the reason u keep a negative outlook for this counter, maybe u can share yr precious veiws so we may be more understand
u see , isolators , even when the brokage firm asking a strong buy in capland , TP 4.65- 4.76 ( DBS N OCBC). My advise is - don believe them. If it is true why it is not moving.. Whats makes it stall at this level. The reason is simple-- they worry china is in the bubble...If one believes it will , then like u say " short" , and those who do not think so then " long" . Keep asing when place the 1 trade...
DBS Vickers (Spore) CapitaLand: Accelerating value homes business BUYS$3.41 PriceTarget : 12-month S$ 4.76
Aiya, if you short is too short, wear long pants loh....
Page 2
Valuation Table for Property Developers
FYE Mkt Price RNAV Target
Cap (S$) (S$) % Price % P/RNAV Latest Qtr Latest Qtr
Company (S$m) 14-Apr-11 Discount (S$) Upside Rcmd (x) NBV/Share P/NBV
Residential
Developers
Allgreen Dec 1,765 1.11 1.84 -30% 1.29 16% Hold 0.60 1.51 0.7
Bt Semb Mar 1,118 4.32 8.69 -40% 5.25 22% Hold 0.50 3.75 1.2
Capitaland Dec 14,643 3.43 5.60 -15% 4.76 39% Buy 0.61 3.32 1.0
Capitamall Asia Dec 7,304 1.88 2.28 10% 2.51 33% Buy 0.82 1.50 1.3
i don know, i am sorry cos i am stubborn. But 1 day, when i find that their balance sheet and cashflow is not healthy, then i exit. No time frame, as who can predict the future, and i am not warren buffet. But 1 thing i am sure-- next 2 years will be a good bulls. And next crisis will not start in CHINA but in VIETNAM (maybe).... a lot of people has been listen too mkuch but asking too little... how can a country with huge reserve bankrupt ??? As for now, Capland, kepland and fn are going on the correct direction, esp capland, their investment has yet to ripe result. Just like kepland, the price is ranging 3.50 to 3.99 level, before the business district building complete. Once completed , it shot to 5.12 high..
Anyway, just remember what you post now... when it goes below $3, take it out again... You know my shorts allow me to buy a lot of pants...I have close my position so many times already....lol...
capland ( Date: 18-Apr-2011 11:46) Posted:
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If what u say is true, your Capitaland n Kepland (~$1m) has big exposure to China - both underperformed STI that has doubled since 2009 low. Why so bullish on these 2 stocks when China keep on raising RRR (required reserve ratio) and other property tightening measures?
Capland, you are long term investor for dividen or capital gain? May I know what is your TP and timeframe?
thank you for your compliment. I am not asking others to follows, cos i already bought when the price went down.. What i say is do not treaT stock market as a safe place to play.. When u play in cautious way- u won lose yr pants. I don want others to lose their pants... just like u did , short , short... see u at $3.... dam it, when can c31 really goes to $3/- .... and it goes up when it hit 3.08 low.....and still shouting " short, short" and i hope one day u will change to " long, long" HA.....
Isolator ( Date: 18-Apr-2011 11:39) Posted:
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