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dj is in reds now..
oil price is coming up again..
wooooo
But singapore Brokerage house cum analysts cum technical expert all tips st index to touch minimun 37xx points becos they spotted a silver lining in the unknown deep and darkness tunnel (they mean hope for BB
, Big Bonus).
Recently one PHD professor forecasts that there'll be QE3 and QE4 and so on, what he was trying to tell us is that USA is never too tired to print more green back..
FearValueGreed ( Date: 07-Mar-2011 23:28) Posted:
ST will go back 3300 region before collapsing till 2012.
When everyone says Index going to collapse, it is unlikely to happen.
Now the Edge, forum every TA chartist are predicting this.
SO according to statistics , instead it will go up.
So dun worry, but worry only if you dun when it hit that figure.
Good luck. |
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Singapore Public Transport (I'm SUPER BEARISH since 1980s) was that, whenever oil spike, fares most likely to be increase. Once its increases, it will never go back to the previous price since parliament alredi passed.
sign of wallet ($) deflation? ??
rotijai ( Date: 07-Mar-2011 23:22) Posted:
no wonder there's a slight drop in oil price
krisluke ( Date: 07-Mar-2011 23:11) Posted:
saudi arabia now says will increase oil production to meet global demand due to mid east chaotic. One thingy to note is that oil from saudi arabia is not as quality as compare to oil produce from libya, kuwait and even iran.
saudi arabia has always been friendly to us president. I was wondering that whether becos of the chaotic, the less " attractive oil pump" was still selling to the consumers at sky high price.
Ignore about the classification from crude oil by product output
oil @ USD 150 during few years ago SUPER oil spike...
Now almost USD 110 liao |
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It was an worrying sign for china, who wants to achieve 5 fat years of growth from this year onwards. china is having price inflation and at the same time oil inflation. some " experts" tip that bubble is forming in china properties. local authorities are cracking their brain to deflate the bubble than causing it to explode which would lead to more severe consequences.
So, see fri PPI and CPI for inflation clue liao. btw sse runs up a lot today (cross 2950 points), likely a pullback to be expected soon.
Hang Seng Index already feels the impact of high fuel pump price...
ST will go back 3300 region before collapsing till 2012.
When everyone says Index going to collapse, it is unlikely to happen.
Now the Edge, forum every TA chartist are predicting this.
SO according to statistics , instead it will go up.
So dun worry, but worry only if you dun when it hit that figure.
Good luck.
no wonder there's a slight drop in oil price
krisluke ( Date: 07-Mar-2011 23:11) Posted:
saudi arabia now says will increase oil production to meet global demand due to mid east chaotic. One thingy to note is that oil from saudi arabia is not as quality as compare to oil produce from libya, kuwait and even iran.
saudi arabia has always been friendly to us president. I was wondering that whether becos of the chaotic, the less " attractive oil pump" was still selling to the consumers at sky high price.
Ignore about the classification from crude oil by product output
oil @ USD 150 during few years ago SUPER oil spike...
Now almost USD 110 liao |
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the most expensive by product of crude oil is jet oil, which normally use for areoplane, fighter jet etc. it seems to me that the globe might stop spanning for a real economy growth. Travelling by air would cost a " bomB" liao
As the old says " when the globe span, the economy is growing strong" . Looks like taxi, sbs bus and even smrt would start jack up commuters fare soon... ever CASH RICH mindef? ?? not so sure...
Becos, for singapore economy, i'm damn lousy and unknowledgable
sigh...
krisluke ( Date: 07-Mar-2011 23:11) Posted:
saudi arabia now says will increase oil production to meet global demand due to mid east chaotic. One thingy to note is that oil from saudi arabia is not as quality as compare to oil produce from libya, kuwait and even iran.
saudi arabia has always been friendly to us president. I was wondering that whether becos of the chaotic, the less " attractive oil pump" was still selling to the consumers at sky high price.
Ignore about the classification from crude oil by product output
oil @ USD 150 during few years ago SUPER oil spike...
Now almost USD 110 liao |
|
saudi arabia now says will increase oil production to meet global demand due to mid east chaotic. One thingy to note is that oil from saudi arabia is not as quality as compare to oil produce from libya, kuwait and even iran.
saudi arabia has always been friendly to us president. I was wondering that whether becos of the chaotic, the less " attractive oil pump" was still selling to the consumers at sky high price.
Ignore about the classification from crude oil by product output
oil @ USD 150 during few years ago SUPER oil spike...
Now almost USD 110 liao
Left photo: Taken on 20 June 2008 Right photo: Taken on 27 June 2008
During Super OIL SPIKE YEARS...
Toscafund: South Africa Is Going To " Blow Up" Worse Than Libya
Toscafund's chief economist sees South Africa blowing up worse than Libya within 15 years, according to an interview he gave Reuters this week.
" It's socially, politically and demographically flawed. It will malfunction within 15 years. It will go the way of MENA (the Middle East and North Africa) but the blow-up will be much more serious," Savvas Savouri told Reuters in an interview last week.
" Professional whites and blacks are leaving in hordes -- the human capital is decaying," he said.
How will a South African blow up affect markets?
From Reuters:
A " malfunction" in South Africa, which is the world's biggest producer of platinum and a major producer of palladium alongside Russia, would push commodity prices higher, benefiting rival commodity-rich countries.
" Clearly Russia and Australia will win out. The surge in commodity prices will benefit them," said Savouri.
Savvas Savouri has been researching South Africa, Africa's biggest economy, for ~4 billion Toscafund, a London-based asset manager. He believes its lack of centralized leadership will ultimately lead to the country's failure.
10 Surprising Truths About Lying
If you say you've never told a lie, you're lying.
Whether it's a small fib (" No honey, you don't look fat" ) or the type that will land you in prison, we all lie at some point.
Researchers and scientists have long been fascinated by our tendencies to distort the truth.
Behavioral experts have found that infants begin to lie from as young as six months.
In a poll, 75% of women say they lie about money to boyfriends, husbands, and family members.
Over 60% of people felt they could wiggle out of their lies once discovered and not suffer the consequences.
13% of 1,500 respondents admitted they lied to researchers in the study that found this statistic
Nearly 40% of folks said the have lied about following a doctor's treatment plan and 30% lied to their doctors about their diet and workout regimen.
60% of people lie at least once during a 10-minute conversation.
People are most likely to lie on the telephone rather than via e-mail, instant messaging or face-to-face conversations.
31% of people admit lying on a resume.
Men lie twice as much as women. On average, men tell six lies per day to their spouses and colleagues women tell three.
The most common lie told by both men and women? " Nothing's wrong, I'm fine."
Is it okay for entrepreneurs to lie? Read this and see if you agree:
Image: Jennifer Su via Flickr
More CLICK ! !!
US rates rise ahead of new bond sales
* Prices fall ahead of $66 bln in new supply
* Yields may need to rise further to attract interest
* Oil could foil recovery, require new stimulus-Lockhart
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices fell on Monday, even as oil prices continued to rise, with investors viewing Friday's rally as overdone and they prepared for $66 billion in new Treasury supply to hit markets this week.
U.S. government debt yields are currently sitting in the middle of their five-week range, as the market grapples with competing forces of a safe haven bid from Middle Eastern turmoil and improving economic data, which has sent yields higher as investors anticipate eventual rate increases.
" The economy looks to be doing better, we are starting to get into a self sustaining recovery and yields were moving higher based on this but all the uncertainty overseas has pulled back the flight to quality bid," said Thomas Roth, executive director in U.S. government bond trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities in New York.
Treasuries had rallied on Friday as investors feared volatility from the Middle East and Africa over the weekend, though with no new large headlines, Treasury notes are now giving back some of these gains.
Demand for new debt sales this week may be swayed by headlines from the Middle East and by oil prices, and Treasury yields may need to rise to attract investor interest absent a flight to quality bid, said Roth.
Ten-year note yields, for example, may need to rise by 7 to 10 basis points to generate interest if no safety bid emerges, Roth said.
The Treasury will sell $32 billion in new three-year notes on Tuesday and $21 billion and $13 billion in reopenings of 10-year notes and 30-year bonds on Wednesday and Thursday.
Benchmark ten-year notes fell 10/32 in price on Monday with yields rising to 3.54 percent, up from 3.49 percent late on Friday. The notes have traded in a range between 3.35 percent and 3.77 percent since late January.
Uncertainty stemming from events in the Middle East and North Africa and the rising cost of oil threaten to derail the economic recovery, and if the unrest continues, it could disrupt the ability of Federal Reserve to remove stimulus, or even require the U.S. central bank to launch a new quantitative easing program.
The uprisings have increased U.S. economic uncertainty and Federal Reserve policy-markets should not rule out further bond purchases if things worsen, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart said on Monday.
Most investors expect the Fed to continue its $600 billion bond purchase program until it expires in mid-June, but say a new program at this time is unlikely absent a strong reversal in economic trends.
Three-year notes fell 2/32 in price on Monday to yield 1.22 percent, up from 1.19 percent on Friday and five-year notes fell 4/32 in price to yield 2.22 percent, up from 2.18 percent.
Thirty-year bonds dropped 21/32 in price to yield 4.64 percent, up from 4.60 percent on Friday.
2011-03-07 22:33:28
my " real worry" ... thu and fri. suppose muslim will be off for friday prayers
* sse chiong alot today...
krisluke ( Date: 06-Mar-2011 23:53) Posted:
next week, china Trade balance(thu), PPI and CPI(fri) will be out. Do watch...
krisluke ( Date: 06-Mar-2011 23:21) Posted:
| More Volatility Ahead of Major Releases? |
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U.S equity markets staged a late week bounce on Thursday night, closing in on their recent one year highs seen two weeks ago. The rebound came after jobless claims unexpectedly fell and American service industries expanded at the fastest pace in five years.
Investors may want to keep their eyes peeled on the macro reports released late next week – the two biggest economies in the world will be releasing major statistics.
Namely, China will be revealing February export figures, which is poised to increase 24% from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg survey of 14 economists. China’s Jan exports had risen 37.7%. Later in the night, the U.S will be announcing their January trade balance figures.
The other consequential and potentially market moving announcement will be China’s inflation figures, released next Friday. Stemming inflation has been a key priority for the Chinese government, the measures of which have in turn concerned investors worldwide.
Yesterday, the China Securities Journal reported on its front page that the central bank will raise the reserve requirement ratio “shortly” to ease liquidity pressure, citing analysts. Hong Kong and Singapore markets subsequently gave up much of their earlier gains in the afternoon session.
Major macro announcements next week
Tue 8 Mar: U.S IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Mar)
Thu 10 Mar: China Trade Balance (Feb), U.S Trade Balance (Jan)
Fri 11 Mar: China PPI & CPI (Feb), U.S Advance Retail Sales (Feb)
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Morgan Stanley cancels all Libya oil trade - source
LONDON (Reuters) - Wall Street bank Morgan Stanley has stopped trading oil with Libya, a trade source said on Monday, in an early indication that sanctions could hit exports from the north African producer. The firm cancelled all crude oil and refined products in the past week " due to the OFAC," the source familiar with the firm's transactions said, referring to the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control, which controls trade sanctions.
President Barack Obama signed an executive order on February 25 freezing the assets of Libya's President Muammar Gaddafi, his family and top officials, as well as the Libyan government and the country's central bank.
Traders said Morgan Stanley has regularly sourced oil from the North African country to feed the UK Grangemouth and the French Lavera refineries but did not know how much the bank was buying from Libya.
The bank also traded gasoline with Libya, sources said.
Morgan Stanley declined to comment.
Most estimates suggest around half of the country's 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production capacity has been suspended due to clashes between government forces and rebels.
Some trade sources expect other oil companies to follow the bank's lead and halt oil trade with Libya, effectively halting exports to the international market.
" Players won't be able to buy Libyan crude even if it's there. It won't matter if they are producing or not," said a crude oil trader.
Austrian energy group OMV said Monday it was still getting oil from Libya despite severe output disruptions.
(Reporting by Emma Farge editing by Anthony Barker)
2011-03-07 22:26:49
UPDATE 1-Global c.banks point to more acute price risks
* Trichet: price risks have increased due to oil price
* Cbanks committed to anchoring inflation expectations
* United inflation fight does not mean united policies
(Recasts, adds details on global imbalances)
By Sakari Suoninen and Natsuko Waki
BASEL, Switzerland, March 7 (Reuters) - A spike in food and oil prices has made the threat of inflation more acute, leading central banks said on Monday, but they warned tightening of policy in response will not proceed at the same pace.
Jean-Claude Trichet, speaking as chair of talks on the global economy at a Bank for International Settlements meeting, said the latest rise in oil prices heightened a warning he sent on inflationary pressures in January, though so far the global economy was set for relatively robust growth.
" Additional tensions that have been observed in the price of oil and energy are giving an additional importance to the message we had in January to the global economy as a whole," Trichet said.
" We are all devoted to continue anchoring solidly inflation expectations, that doesn't mean we take the same decisions."
A shock warning by European Central Bank President Trichet last week that it could raise euro zone interest rates next month highlighted differences with the looser stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, driving the euro sharply higher.
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart on Monday said U.S. monetary policymakers should not rule out further bond purchases if things worsen -- pointing to its continuing concern over economic growth. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ For a graphic detailing 2010 commodity performances click on http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/F/12/CMD_Q4.html For a graphic showing FAO food index components, http://r.reuters.com/baz74r Calculator: oil and impact on GDP http://r.reuters.com/jux28r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
ANCHORING INFLATION
Inflation concerns are pushing world stocks away from their 30-month highs set last month and expectations of a rise in euro zone interest rates have driven the euro to a four-month peak above $1.40.
Global food prices measured by the United Nations hit a record high in February, driven by rising grain costs and tighter supply, while U.S. crude oil prices hit fresh 2-1/2 year highs due to worries over supply disruption in Arab producers.
Trichet said different policies did not mean some central banks were abandoning their commitment to stable prices.
" There is unity of purpose and that this is crystallising in the goal of solidly anchoring inflation expectations," Trichet said.
Oil price growth causes a significant temporary bump in inflation but it has to rise significantly to have a material impact on world economic growth, which is still expected to reach a healthy 4 percent this year.
Reuters calculations show world GDP growth will halve to 2.1 percent in 2011 from current projections only if Brent crude oil reached $150 a barrel, a 27 percent increase from Monday's prices. (Reporting by Natsuko Waki, Catherine Bosley and Sakari Suoninen editing by Patrick Graham)
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By Ben Tan Sunday March 6, 2011 09:45 pm PST
- Ris Low has rubbished reports that she is a social escort, after a local escort agency called Ambassador Productions had shown photos of a bikini-clad girl under the name of ‘Iris' who looked uncannily like her.
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The touted escort's vital statistics such as height, weight and age also matched Low's
When contacted by The New Paper, Low forcefully denied the allegations, declaring: " Iris? Am I that dense to use such a name? I'm not in need of money and I'm not contracted to any agency."
" I think all these people who are spreading such rumours are just jealous," she said. " This is not the first time (it has happened)."
With a budding movie career that sees her playing the role of an assassin in an upcoming local film called " The Magnum" , as well as having a cameo in the local romantic comedy " Forever" , the dethroned beauty queen is trying to put her checkered past behind her.
She said: " Very soon I would be stepping into adulthood, marking the end of my teenage life. Getting myself into turmoil should not be my objective anymore."
When asked about her involvement with " The Magnum" , Low excitedly said that " the role portrays a side of me that the public does not normally see. I am serious about this project (and) I am confident that the end result will be positive."
" I'll give it my best shot and show the world what this girl can do."
Wall St set for higher open, oil climb continues
The New York Stock Exchange seen with a Wall street sign in front
* Oil rises on geopolitical tensions
* Western Digital to buy Hitachi's hard disk operations
* Futures up: Dow 16 pts, S& P up 1.7 pts, Nasdaq 5.5 pts (Updates to mid-morning)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were set to open slightly higher on Monday as investors weighed a batch of acquisition activity against another climb in oil prices on unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.
Brent crude gained 1.5 percent to $117.65 a barrel and U.S. oil futures were up 2.2 percent to $106.76 as fighting in Libya disrupted the nation's oil supplies and on renewed concerns of wider disruptions in the region.
Western Digital Corp advanced 8.5 percent to $32.55 in premarket trading as the world's No. 2 computer hard drive maker agreed to buy Hitachi Ltd's hard disk drive operations for about $4.3 billion.
Government troops seeking to dislodge rebels from Libya's coast advanced on an oil town amid accelerating humanitarian efforts to prevent civilian suffering from worsening and a mass refugee exodus.
OPEC is contemplating whether to hold an extraordinary meeting, Qatar's Energy Minister said, who added there was no supply shortage in the market.
" There is a lot out there, whether it is rising commodity prices, specifically rising energy prices, the ongoing risk associated with North Africa, you pick the country, rising rates on the stage for Trichet and the (European Central Bank)," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Equity Markets in Jersey City, New Jersey.
" There is a lot working against the market at this stage of the game. Now any gains are going to be hard fought and are going to really have to be justified. We are well past the easy sledding."
S& P 500 futures gained 1.7 points and were slightly above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 16 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 5.5 points.
In Saudi Arabia, security forces detained at least 22 minority Shi'ite Muslims who protested what they said was discrimination. The Saudi Shi'ites have staged small protests for about two weeks in the kingdom's east, site of much of the oil wealth of the world's top crude exporter.
Citigroup raised its price forecasts for Brent and West Texas intermediate crude for 2011 and 2012, in part citing a " fear premium" on threats of continued output disruptions.
The London Stock Exchange is eyeing a takeover of U.S. rival Nasdaq OMX Group Inc, just weeks after the London bourse announced a merger with the Toronto stock exchange, the Sunday Times reported. Nasdaq shares added 2.1 percent to $28.62 premarket.
Accuray Inc will acquire TomoTherapy Inc, a smaller rival in radiation therapy systems, for about $277 million. Accuray dipped 3 percent to $9.71, while TomoTherapy surged 28.1 percent to $4.70 premarket.
The 3 Huge Concerns Of Investors All Around The Globe
In his Monday Morning Musings note, Citi's Tobias Levkovich shares the results of conversations he's had with over 100 institutional investors all around the world over the last month.
There are a few particular concerns they overwhelmingly cite.
The first is kind of a duh: inflation. More specifically, the impact of rising commodity prices is on everyone's mind. How surging commodities impact central bank policy, specifically the Fed is a huge question.
Closely related: corporate margins.
As this chart shows, if margins are on the wane, stocks are likely to follow:
And finally, investors have been caught flat-footed by the outperformance of US and European markets, when many had bet heavily on emerging markets.
The emerging markets/developed markets rotation clearly has impacted almost every investor we met around the globe. The outperformance of Europe and the US has surprised many money managers who were loaded up on EM trades and their underperformance has been painful which showed. There is much discussion about money flows switching back to the US as weekly mutual fund flows have moved decidedly west . That combined with the potential for more money flow movement away from bonds to stocks makes them very nervous about standing in the way of a possible tidal wave of cash. While most investors expressed a strong desire to maintain their long EM positions and indeed appeared to be digging in their heels, one might say that they are timid holders currently and could become further sellers if this “pain trade” keeps going against them.
What's particularly interesting is this comment. Everyone thinks everyone else is bullish:
We were somewhat surprised that investors were convinced that everyone allegedly was becoming bullish on the US, as they cited stronger economic growth expectations and the 30% gain in markets since the July/August 2010 double dip fears receded. Yet, our Panic/Euphoria Model (see Figure 13) does not argue for any such euphoric attitudes, though complacency may be a more accurate description versus the panic seen last summer. Nonetheless, the rolling four-week average flows into equity mutual funds does show more inflows than we have seen since 2007 and individual investors now are chasing stocks after an essential doubling of the S& P 500 from its early 2009 lows. In addition, we have seen flows start to favor growth and aggressive growth funds for the first time in a very long time, underscoring a willingness to take some risk again. However, a shift towards growth stocks is the right strategy if margins are peaking, in our opinion. Therefore, we are not overly worried by this development.
The Harrowing Chart The Shows How Close We Are To The Oil Spike That Caused The Last Recession
Oil prices are rising and taking up a larger amount of U.S. GDP, in a similar way to how they did in 2008, according to Lazard Capital Markets.
And now they're in the 5 percent of GDP range, which has the potential to destroy demand.
From Lazard Capital Markets:
Oil prices likely to go higher but entering demand destruction range time to get more cautious. In contrast to the 2008 superspike, where oil prices spiked on runaway emerging market demand, the latest spike has been driven by supply issues as Middle East instability worsens. With unrest spreading from Egypt to Libya and Oman (and concern over possible unrest in Saudi Arabia), we believe oil prices could go significantly higher from current levels. Our price elasticity models indicate oil prices could spike to $160+/Bbl if we lost all Libyan production and one half of Saudi production.
That said, we are near levels where the market begins to worry about negative impacts on the economy (~ 5% of global GDP), which we believe warrants a more selective investment stance based on our analysis of the prior oil price spike cycle in 2008.
Since this scenario is somewhat different, being based not on demand but on supply, it is unsure whether or not it will have the same impact. But if you're looking at the oil price just in terms of GDP, we're nearing the point where things could turn ugly.
Don't miss: The 10 oil companies best positioned to win from the chaos in the Middle East >
Citi Hikes Its Outlook For Oil, While Questioning Saudi Arabia's Spare Capacity Claims
In light of the obvious, Citi's Mark C. Fletcher has hiked his price estimate for oil:
We are raising our Brent forecast for 2011 and 2012 to $105/barrel and $100/barrel respectively from our previous estimate of $90/barrel. In part this reflects a mark to market against a stronger-than-anticipated Q1, and a view that output disruption (or at least the threat of) will support a fear premium for the rest of 2011.
Perhaps the most interesting part is this. Citi is skeptical of stated spare capacity claims:
Assumed spare capacity of 5.2Mbd relies on Saudi Arabia’s claim of 12.5Mbd of capacity and therefore current flexibility of 4.1Mbd. As Figure 6 below shows, Saudi Arabia has not managed to produce more than 10Mbd in recent years and the market cannot be sure of claimed productive capacity until it is tested. Grade quality and the ability of the market to manage quality substitution is also an issue which may cause logistical dislocation and therefore price issues.
