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2661-2680 of 4713
Luckily I offloaded last Friday with 1.83.
Will pick again if hit the support near to 1.72 (around there)
Yangzijiang normally will rebound form lower Bollinger Band (est 1.76). and surge to upper Bolliger Band (est 1.91).
Cheong Ah!!!
Huat Ah !!!!
if there's any consolation..yzj CFO is quite a looker.. :)
Credit Suisse says Yangzijiang offers ‘good value’
Credit Suisse maintained its ‘outperform’ rating on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding after the company reported a 14% YoY revenue increase to RMB3.1 bn for the first quarter of this year.
Despite it being a seasonally weaker quarter, the shipbuilder’s gross profit of RMB827 mn was 26% of Credit Suisse’s FY11 forecast of Rmb3.2 bn.
Gross margins surged to 27.1% from 23.3%.
Credit Suisse said it maintains its forecasts pending the NDR (Non-Deal Roadshow) it is hosting on 4 May.
“On 2011E P/E of 11x, we believe Yangzijiang offers good value relative to its global shipbuilding peers. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and target price of S$2.40.”
Recent stories:
good set of results, in oversold zone...
but price down..
it's a divergence..will accumulate more..
Yangzijiang is a very conservative and thrifty company, that is why their profit margin is so big. Last Q +30%
They must be waiting till the last moment to wait for the Reminbi to appreciate to counter China Inflation. We know China had to do it like we do sooner or later.
If Reminbi appreciate then they can save due to forex exchange. They still pay us Singapore 4.5cts
sci80899 ( Date: 03-May-2011 09:12) Posted:
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alexchia01 ( Date: 02-May-2011 12:51) Posted:
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Yes, I'm familiar with stock trading, this is why I know YZJ is most likely going down.
Hawkeye ( Date: 02-May-2011 00:31) Posted:
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When you are in a Forum please post relevantly.
Yangzijiang issue is just reserved for YZJ issue.
Follow up with YZJ stock and you should understand since you are so familiar with trading of stock.
alexchia01 ( Date: 01-May-2011 10:24) Posted:
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I didn't say I'm familiar with YZJ and I'm not talking about YZJ specifically.
Like I mentioned, this is just a general concept.
Since you are familiar with YZJ, please enlighten us.
Hawkeye ( Date: 30-Apr-2011 22:26) Posted:
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Alexchia01 is not familiar with Yangxijiang, look at his post and compare with the YZJ chart and you know.
Rumour YZJ Ha Ha
alexchia01 ( Date: 30-Apr-2011 14:06) Posted:
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It's simple. Buy on Rumor and Sell on News.
Before the result is out, Season Traders are already accumulating the shares based on rumor. When the result is out, they sell to newbie traders and newbie investors.
Season Traders won't buy on news. They anticipate the news and position themselves before the news is out. If you are a trader and you buy once the result is out, you Buy too Late.
Season Investors also know about this, so they usually wait for price to fall to certain level before Buying. If you are an investor and you buy once the result is out, you Buy too Early.
Please note, this is just a general concept. Not all stocks, traders and investors acted this way.
larrysoon ( Date: 30-Apr-2011 00:04) Posted:
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RESULTS FIRST LOOK
YZJ posted a 63% y-y rise in 1Q11 net profits to RMB 955mn, helped by robust core GP margins as well as a sharp increase in investment & other income gains. Excluding investment and other gains (which now form 35% of PBT) group net profit would have been broadly in line, but record shipbuilding margins of 27% were ahead of estimates. We maintain our BUY rating, given what we see as a relatively undemanding FY11/12F P/E of 10.6x and 9.7x, and net orderbook of US$5.38bn. |
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Price target: 2.3 SGD Price (28 Apr 2011): 1.81 SGD Research analyst: Lisa Lee +65 6433 6979 lisa.lee@nomura.com Research analyst: Spandan Sharma (Associate) ublish Date: 28 Apr 2011 P 1Q11 ahead on robust core margins •
Earnings vs. our Forecast:
ABOVE
Likely Impact: •
Earnings Estimates:
UP •
Dividend Estimates:
NO CHANGE •
Price Target:
NO CHANGE •
Long-term View:
CONFIRMED
Results ahead of expectations Robust orderbook to underpin FY11/12F earnings. The group expects to deliver 65 vessels this year, of which 22 will be from its old yard, 30 from its New Yangzi yard and 13 from its Changbo yard. Management also highlighted that enquiry levels for containerships remains robust, with a focus on larger, higher capacity but more energy efficient vessels. As at 1Q2011, the group had secured 14 shipbuilding contracts worth US$512.3mn. Of the total outstanding orderbook of US$5.38bn (131 vessels, 45 containers, 86 bulkers), 55% to 60% remain relatively high margin contracts secured during the 2007-08 boom period. Management expects shipbuilding earnings to be sustained in 2011/12, given a still sizeable orderbook.Seaspan contract, still awaiting downpayment According to Tradewinds, Seaspan has signed an LOI with YZJ to construct 22 units of 10,000 TEU containerships (including options) for up to US$2.156bn (US$98mn/vessel), with the first vessel for delivery in Jan 2014 (Seaspan $2bn order haul, 14 Mar 11). While the article noted that the signing of the official contract will take place in late Apr/early May, the announced contract size is likely to be spread out in batches (6+6+5+5) as Seaspan would only confirm a newbuild contract concurrently with an underlying charter contract. . As for the well-publicised Seaspan contract, management said that, while a memorandum of understanding (MOU) has been signed, the group has not received the initial deposit and thus has not made any official announcement, pending the downpayment.Interest and investment income up sharp 21% y-y to RMB281mn in 1Q11. In its latest annual report (2010), the group detailed that of its held to maturity assets of RMB8.6bn, 33% were in shares listed in the PRC, 30% in properties and land use rights, 17% in restricted shares of listed PRC companies while the rest were in corporate guarantees and unlisted shares. This was largely led by returns from the group’s investments made through its microfinance unit. As at 31 March 2011, the group held cash and cash equivalents of RMB2.8bn (down from the RMB4.54bn as at 31 Dec), while financial assets held to maturity (under current assets) increased to RMB6.21bn as at 1Q11 from RMB5.2bn in 4Q10. Financial assets held to maturity in non-current assets totalled RMB3.73bn (RMB3.42bn as at 31 Dec 2010) |
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding---------------------------------------------------Maintain OUTPERFORM
Strong 1Q11 results driven by high gross margin EPS:
◄ ► TP: ◄ ►Gerald Wong / Research Analyst / 65 6212 3037 / gerald.wong@credit-suisse.com
Bhuvnesh Singh / Research Analyst / 65 6212 3006 / bhuvnesh.singh@credit-suisse.com
Christopher Chang / Research Analyst / 65 6212 3024 / christopher.chang@credit-suisse.com
●
revenue increase to RMB3.1 bn. Despite being a seasonally
weaker quarter, 1Q11 gross profit of RMB827 mn was 26% of our
FY11 forecast of Rmb3.2 bn, as gross margins surged to 27.1% in
1Q11 from 23.3% in 1Q10.
Yangzijiang reported strong 1Q11 results, with a 14% YoY●
Rmb3.4 bn, driven by an increase in interest income to Rmb281
mn. The company also registered a Rmb112.8 mn gain due to
positive mark to market variation for outstanding contracts
denominated in euro.
1Q11 net profit of Rmb955 mn was 28% of our forecasts of●
orders worth US$512 mn in 1Q11. According to
has also signed a letter of intent (LOI) with Seaspan to construct
up to 22 10,000 TEU containerships worth US$2.2 bn.
Yangzijiang announced on 11 April it had secured 14 newbuildTradewinds, it●
May. On 2011E P/E of 11x, we believe Yangzijiang offers good
value relative to its global shipbuilding peers. We maintain our
OUTPERFORM rating and target price of S$2.40.
We maintain our forecasts pending the NDR we are hosting on 4Strong results driven by high gross margins
Yangzijiang reported strong 1Q11 results, with a 14% YoY increase in
revenue to Rmb3.1 bn. 1Q11 gross profit of Rmb827 mn was 26% of
our FY11 forecast of Rmb3.2 bn, as gross margins surged to 27.1% in
1Q11 from 23.3% in 1Q10. Management attributed the strong margins
to the construction and delivery of contracts secured prior to the
financial crisis. 1Q11 net profit of Rmb955 mn was 28% of our
forecasts of Rmb3.4 bn, driven by an increase in interest income to
Rmb281 mn. The company also registered a Rmb112.8 mn gain due
to positive mark to market variation for outstanding contracts
denominated in euro.
Figure 1: Yangzijiang – 1Q11 results
Reported results Change (%) Against FY est
(RMB mn) 1Q10 4Q10 1Q11 QoQ YoY FY11E YTD (%)
Revenue 2,676 4,090 3,050 (25.4) 14.0 14,280 21.4
Gross profit 623 857 827 (3.5) 32.7 3,234 25.6
PBT 741 1,081 1,151 6.5 55.3 3,892 29.6
PATMI excl EI 586 838 955 13.9 62.8 3,382 28.2
Gross margin (%) 23.3 20.9 27.1 22.6
Op. margin (%) 27.8 26.8 38.1 19.7
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
US$512 mn of contracts secured in 1Q11
Yangzijiang announced on 14 April 2011 that it has secured six
newbuild orders worth US$214 mn in March 2011. These contracts
would bring total order intake in 1Q11 to US$512 mn, representing
26% of our 2011 order forecast of US$2 bn. The six vessels are
expected to be delivered between 2012 and 2013.
Figure 2: Contracts for 6 vessels secured in March 2011
Units Vessel Size Estimated value (US$ mn)
2 82,000 DWT bulk carrier 70
2 4,800 TEU containerships 100
2 10,000 DWT bulk carrier 40
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Order momentum improving Seaspan contract could
provide further upside
The US$512 mn of contracts secured in 1Q11 represent the highest
level of contracts secured in a quarter since 3Q08, reflecting
improving order momentum for the company. Press reports have
suggested that Yangzijiang has signed a letter of intent with Seaspan
for 22 containerships worth up to US$2.2 bn. If contracts for 15 10,000
TEU containerships are secured this year, Yangzijiang would achieve
our FY11 forecasts without further contract wins.
Figure 3: Order momentum improving
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11
Quarterly Contract Wins (US$mn)
Source: Company data. NB: 3Q10 refers to Jul-Aug 2010. 4Q10 refers to Sep-Dec
2010.
Maintain OUTPERFORM
We maintain our forecasts pending the NDR we are hosting on 4 May.
On 2011E P/E of 11x, we believe Yangzijiang offers good value
relative to its global shipbuilding peers. We maintain our
OUTPERFORM rating and target price of S$2.40.
Yangzijiang (YAZG.SI)
Margin Surprise Drives Stronger than Expected Quarter
valuations (~11x FY11/12E P/E). While concerns remain over the rate of margin
contraction beyond 2012, the group continues to make significant headway in its plans
to broaden its product offerings (10-300k dwt vessels) and double shipbuilding capacity
by 2013. Following the strong start, we think there might be potential room for upside
risks to our FY11/12E earnings/order wins assumptions.
Maintain Buy — We continue to like YZJ for its strong execution and undemanding
than our above-consensus projections (29% of full-year est). The positive surprise
came on the back of i) higher-than-expected gross margins (27% +615bps QoQ +382
bps YoY) ii) stronger interest income (RMB281mn +124% YoY) and iii) Forex gains
(RMB113mn +187% YoY) relating to mark-to-market variations on outstanding EURdenominated
orders. Net Cash remains healthy at RMB1.5bn.
1Q11 Results — 1Q11 PATMI of RMB955mn (+14% QoQ +63% YoY) was stronger
‘high-margin’ vessels and the corresponding write-back of provisions made in earlier
periods. High-margin orders constitute c.55% of order backlog as at end 1Q11 and
mgmt remains confident of delivering margins in the 20% region in FY11-12. From
2013, however, margins are generally expected to trend downwards to 10-15%.
Margin Outlook — Gross margin surprise was underpinned by the completion of four
our US$1.4bn full-year est), taking net orderbook to US$5.4bn (~ 50-50% split between
containerships and bulk carriers in terms of order value). Details are still being finetuned
with respect to the group’s potential contract with Seaspan (LOI to build 22 10k
teu containerships worth US$2bn). Should the order materialize, we note that YZJ will
be the first Chinese yard to be awarded
Chinese customer. We think this would eventually improve YZJ’s competitive
positioning vis-ŕ-vis the Korean yards.
Orderbook Prospects — YZJ secured US$512mn worth of new orders in 1Q11 (vs.≥ 10k teu containership contract from a non-Equities
Statistical Abstract
Year to Net Profit Diluted EPS EPS growth P/E P/B ROE Yield
31 Dec (RmbM) (Rmb) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)
2009A 2,290 0.627 38.9 15.3 5.5 43.1 1.7
2010A 2,955 0.799 27.4 12.0 3.7 36.4 2.3
2011E 3,329 0.862 7.9 11.1 3.0 29.8 2.3
2012E 3,429 0.887 3.0 10.8 2.5 25.1 2.3
2013E 3,007 0.778 -12.3 12.3 2.2 18.8 2.3
Source: Powered by dataCentral
| Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ SP S$1.84 OUTPERFORM TP S$2.69) |
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1Q11 core net profit of Rmb955.3m (+63% yoy) is 19% above our forecast and consensus, at 29% of our FY11 number, thanks to stronger-than-expected gross margins of 27% (22% expected). We expect margins to normalize in the coming quarters as high-margin contracts secured before the crisis reach their tail end. Maintain OUTPERFORM and TP S$2.69. We recommend investors to accumulate YZJ ahead of potential sizeable contracts from Seaspan. Order wins and higher revenue from productivity gains plus the strong 1Q11 results are expected to boost its share price. |
Recent volatility is due to most investor are waiting for further China tightening measures to happen.
When the buying stops, speculative buying starts and shorting with covering trade follows.
Some investor may not want to hold on stock will sell.
Looks like these volatility had been going on for about a week and the bollinger band got more and more narrow.
Whether YZJ break up or break down later depends on general market condition whether general market is trending up or down.
Investor who want to play, volatility is heaven. Long, wait for next month China inflation figure.
But if market sensed that inflation in China begining to lessen and improve market will Rocket. Otherwise, sit tight and wait for the inflation to improve.
We should be sharing coming China inflation figure for next month and after.
I think Yangzijiang is a good company too.
Just that recent Up Run it didn't perform as expected.
It's sitting on its support of $1.80 now, but looking at the sell down volume in the last 2 days, I have doubt it would hold. If breaks below, the next support level is at $1.66.
Market is near its peak and could be reversing downwards soon.
If this happens, Yangzijiang could be one of the 1st to fall.
Just my view.
risktaker ( Date: 28-Apr-2011 19:55) Posted:
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