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With the CEO leaving during this period is not too positive (my own view). The incoming CEO will hv a big challenge ahead of him. Hope NOL can do well.
hee...cant believe it..i just shorted 1.62...yet to cover...wat a day!!! that LIM is leaving can be v. -ve news...downtrend likely intact :P
David Lim Grp CEO planning to leave on 2nd half 2006, hope by then New CEO maybe a much better one, from my personnal opinion NOL, due to it high oil consumer for it transportation usage w/o oil price coming down, it going to be tough to make good report as before for new CEO.
NOL seems to going up again. Anyone who has done a TA on this stock? Will NOL start to uptrend now?
Wow, such a narrow margin for NOL. Hope Nicky can break even or suffer margin loss by short covering. Pray u will not lose your pants today or get fried by the "sizzling hot market" today! That's the game in daily short or contra selling - you can't win or lose every day Good. luck to pundits who forecast that the market would be down today and short sold certain conters! The market is not or bear or bull phase. It's trading sideway to trap the contra players or short sellers. In next to no time, there should be a rally. The proverbial early bird which catches its worm will laugh all the way to the bank pretty soon.
ok....covered at 1.67 liao...better play safe :P ..shorted twice for this counter :P
yup... u r right...nevertheless push my luck..shorted at 1.71...yet to close...hee....
The market today is only a few points down. Unless there is a positive downtrend, Nicky u may lose your pants or be "short circuited" alive if u short NOL. The volume is not too high, and it appears to be in a "yo-yo" situation.
can short this now?? hee....v tempted...looks like downtrend is intact :P
ok ok..so that mean it is a signal for me to cont'd to short NOL this coming Monday loh??? :)
NOL's price plunge indicates that it could be catching up with shipping stocks lsited elsewhere, and which had started to decline in Mar 2004. These include Evergreen Marine and Yang Ming Marine listed in Taiwan. NOL only started to decline in Mar 2005.
Fear of declining freight rates and rising fuel costs are 2 oft-cited reasons for the woes of this sector.
NOL reported net profit of US$803.87 mln in 2005. In Q1 '06, net profit fell 39% to US$119.51 mln.
NOL's out-performance, relative to say Evergreen and Yang Ming in 2005 could be due to its generous distribution in last year:
- In early 2005, when releasing results for Q4 '04, NOL had declared a normal final dividend of 14.69 cents and a special of 21.69 cents, both tax exempt;
- In Dec '05, NOL declared a special distribution (tax exempt) of $1.34 bln or 92 cents per share.
At $1.65, NOL has fallen well below Temasek's takeover offer price in Aug '04 of $2.80 per share, after factoring in the 92 cents special distribution.
However, if we also factor in the 2004 final dividend of 36.38 cents, the current price is still some 13 cents above.
There are 3 major considerations for NOL:
- Is Temasek likely to make a another attempt to privatize NOL?
- Will trends in the container shipping industry continue to deteriorate?
- Relative valuation of shipping stocks.
It's a fact that much has changed in the global maritime sector since Sep '04, when Temasek's offer closed:
- PSA lost out in the battle for P&O to Dubai Port
- SembCorp Industries sold out of Semb Log to Toll of Australia
- Expectation of global economic slowdown, especially in the event of monetary overkill by central bankers.
There's was speculation of PSA teaming up with Macquarie Bank to go after Patrick Corp, that was then in the process of being acquired by Toll, and after SCI had sold Semb Log to Toll. Macquarie has subsequently abandoned the attempt.
NOL's price is likely to continue to drift lower because of:
- pervasive caution on the container shipping sector.
- Minimum yield of 4.9% (based on NOL's dividend policy of the higher of 8 cents per share, or 20% of the profit*) is not alluring enough.
* 8 cents per share or $70 mln should not be difficult to maintain, short of a global catastrophe.
But it's certainly woth noting that while Evergreen and Yang Ming are trading about 10% below NTA, NOL is on 21% to the adjusted NTA of US$1.32 (S$2.08).
actually would like to buy to support..but this NOL yoyo up n down...but general trend is down..so i guess Mon open i will short at 1.65 again? hee...since DJ oso in red for 5th or so session liao..wat u guys think??
Since u short oredi yesterday, U should be buying up in support of what U has bot and buy more, so today U let go just nice, anyway U very luckly, either U win or lose, so this time U win.
nah....didn't dare...anyway i foresee this counter will rise and stabilies to $1.82 :P based on NTA evaluation comparing to other similar listed co. like Yang...etc..
How to short sell when the market was up today! If Nicky had short sold, he would have been "scalded" today. Or was he burnt or charred?
hee...shld i short today at 1.56?? seems tempted to do so...hee...NOL is gd!! easy $$$ during a downtrend...
Unless one has very deep pocket, shorting may make a person "sot-sot" like people who got electric shock.
ya loh...wasted..covered too early..if covered at 1.52 will be good :)
hee..if DJ down tonite..hee...tomor i can short it again :P
Shorting is very dangerous unless U r very sharp minded ppl, cos not much time is given for covering back within a trading day, let say U take 1-2 mins off screen, next mins down how?? seow liao, very lucky this time round.
hee...taking advice of forumer that this counter is downtrend...shorted 1.60 and covered at 1.55..hee..