Olam Intl   

OLAM_OLAM

Com'on don't take too long to come to your senses ..... which Olam's pillars/legs you want to support. 

Cantonese's saying " 没 眼 看 ? cannot bear to see the end of it 。 。 。  

 

Olam has a good portfolio of products but its funding policy is pulling it down. It is drowning in debt. Here is the best indicator: total debt at 30 Jun $8.85 bn. Total mkt cap  today $3.68 bn. I am very interested to see how it is going to fund its operations going forward.

 

Rosesyrup already said he/she is in the money, meaning he/she bot below current mkt px. Its on record.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 29-Oct-2013 13:57) Posted: Friend, you can ignore the thumb up/down system. I too  received many thumbs down, but I don't care.  I am  here to share and get info to earn money not to earn thumb up/down. I am currently in the money and I don't mind exiting if what you said were true. But the problem here is you keep posting something that cannot be substantiated. You started off with some exaggerated claim that Olam overhauled management team. In fact only 2 directors stepped down. I mean seriously.... Now you claimed that you heard from grapevine  shortists want to short this counter, but never tell where your grapevine extended from. Grapevine from your 10k net worth colleague and  billion net worth friends can be very different. We can't assess the strength of your claims don't even mention verify.   Best of all, you  mentioned MW's comment which was made months ago " OLAM not changing old way" . Negativity aside, I don't understand why you always choose to post some " news" that cannot be verified, I mean what's the point? And whenever I tried to verify your 'news' you never failed to  escape with  the answer 'your money you decide....mymoney...'. Come on,  I am just trying to verify things, how can I possible decide on where you use your money.  Your tendency to  avoid giving direct answer  is a mystery that I have yet to solve.    If you really think olam is really that bad, why don't you just short it and let us know  your TP and analysis? Don't you think it's more healthy to share objective analysis here rather than some rumor?   Anyway the only reason I still stay in this stock is that I am eye the big pie of $3.20. Now shortists you are welcome to thumb down me :) EZ3626      ( Date: 29-Oct-2013 08:39) Posted: This BB is still vunerable. I heard through the grapevine, the shortists are going to hoot this BB ..... they said this BB is going to be under attacked again.  As I have mentioned, too risky to enter (speaking for myself) ... shall watch and see as the day draws near.    Also, Muddy Water has posted some comments ... he is at it again. Agreed with roostertan it is their poor management.  Hope the management is vigilant ....

 

Sis, are you vested in olam?

 

LOL Who game over?

Octavia      ( Date: 01-Nov-2013 08:40) Posted: Muddy Waters: Game over for Olam if Temasek pulls out Almost a year after it first released its report on Olam International, shortselling research firm Muddy Waters is not letting up on the agri-commodities trader yet. " My view is that if Temasek decides tomorrow that it wanted out of this investment, it would be game over within months for them, without Temasek's backstop," its research director Carson Block told The Business Times in his first visit to Singapore since launching its report against Olam last November. " For us, the be-all and end-all when we're looking at Olam is free cashflow. It's a company that seems to be in general wholly-incapable of generating free cash flow. It takes on more and more debt, and eventually, this debt has to be repaid." The shortseller had late last year accused Olam of relying on accounting tricks to boost its bottomline, spending too much on poor quality assets, and said it valued Olam on a " liquidation basis" . The attack, the first of its kind in Singapore, caused Olam's shares to fall 20 per cent to a low of $1.395 at the height of the saga, and subsequently led to an overhaul of Olam's plans after a strategic review. The firm said that it now aims to be free cashflow positive from the 2014 financial year onwards, a year earlier than its original target of FY2015, and has laid out plans to cut planned capital expenditure, monetise its balance sheet and divest certain assets. Mr Block said of these: " The company's saying the right things. The question is whether it actually does those things. It might have become slightly more selective, but you still see substantial cash burn in the company." " Maybe they can finance their way out of it, however many more times, but there will come a day - it might be sooner, it might be later - when the market will not be open to this company." In August, Olam reported a negative free cashflow of $316 million for the 2013 financial year, compared with negative $661 million a year before. Olam's net gearing now stands at 1.93 times, as compared to 2.20 times the previous quarter, and 1.81 times at the end of FY2012. When asked if Muddy Waters still retains a short position on the firm, Mr Block said it does not usually comment on its positions aside from the release of its reports. But in a hint that Muddy Waters is still short on Olam, he added: " Obviously we're usually used to winning within a shorter period of time. Fortunately for many of the names we've shorted in the past, we haven't really had to think to answer that question. Olam is different." Shares for Olam, and Muddy Waters' target after that, US cellphone antenna operator American Towers, had not dropped as much as the shortseller's earlier targets, leading to talk that its influence has faded. In a sign that its streak of lacklustre results is ending, however, Muddy Waters' latest report launched last Thursday against Chinese mobile services provider NQ Mobile led to its shares falling more than 60 per cent within an hour. Temasek moving into the ring to support Olam was a move that the shortseller had not foreseen, Mr Block admitted. " We looked at it from a purely economic standpoint, which is that it is not an investible company, and maybe we ignored the political elements of this, the psychological element, the issues that were more systemic in Singapore that could interest a sovereign in a bailout," he said. Two weeks after Muddy Waters spoke out against Olam, Temasek, then the firm's second-largest shareholder, threw its weight behind Olam by agreeing not just to take up its pro-rata entitlement of Olam's US$1.25 billion bonds-cum-warrants rights issue, but also sub-underwrite it. The issue was eventually 1.1 times subscribed. Temasek has also since then progressively increased its ownership of Olam, from an initial 16.3 per cent before the Muddy Waters attack to 24.07 per cent now. In Mr Block's view, Temasek had stepped in because of the wider implications that an Olam collapse would have posed to the commodity-trading industry in Singapore. " If Olam had failed, what would the banks have done with the other commodity houses that are borrowing in Singapore?" he said. " It's reasonable to assume that if the banks had to write off losses to Olam, you could have a real funding freeze for the commodity trading industry in Singapore. " Temasek's spokesman Stephen Forshaw said the Singapore investment company's reason for investing in Olam remained the same: " We have been, and remain, supportive of its publicly known strategy to take the opportunity, in recent years, to add on more upstream and midstream capabilities and capacities. " We also acknowledged that no business is without risks. But that said, at the time of the investment, we were comfortable with Olam's credit position and longer term prospects, and were very pleased to have another opportunity to invest in the company, alongside others."

 

Muddy Waters: Game over for Olam if Temasek pulls out

Almost a year after it first released its report on Olam International, shortselling research firm Muddy Waters is not letting up on the agri-commodities trader yet.

" My view is that if Temasek decides tomorrow that it wanted out of this investment, it would be game over within months for them, without Temasek's backstop," its research director Carson Block told The Business Times in his first visit to Singapore since launching its report against Olam last November.

" For us, the be-all and end-all when we're looking at Olam is free cashflow. It's a company that seems to be in general wholly-incapable of generating free cash flow. It takes on more and more debt, and eventually, this debt has to be repaid."

The shortseller had late last year accused Olam of relying on accounting tricks to boost its bottomline, spending too much on poor quality assets, and said it valued Olam on a " liquidation basis" .

The attack, the first of its kind in Singapore, caused Olam's shares to fall 20 per cent to a low of $1.395 at the height of the saga, and subsequently led to an overhaul of Olam's plans after a strategic review.

The firm said that it now aims to be free cashflow positive from the 2014 financial year onwards, a year earlier than its original target of FY2015, and has laid out plans to cut planned capital expenditure, monetise its balance sheet and divest certain assets.

Mr Block said of these: " The company's saying the right things. The question is whether it actually does those things. It might have become slightly more selective, but you still see substantial cash burn in the company."

" Maybe they can finance their way out of it, however many more times, but there will come a day - it might be sooner, it might be later - when the market will not be open to this company."

In August, Olam reported a negative free cashflow of $316 million for the 2013 financial year, compared with negative $661 million a year before.

Olam's net gearing now stands at 1.93 times, as compared to 2.20 times the previous quarter, and 1.81 times at the end of FY2012.

When asked if Muddy Waters still retains a short position on the firm, Mr Block said it does not usually comment on its positions aside from the release of its reports.

But in a hint that Muddy Waters is still short on Olam, he added: " Obviously we're usually used to winning within a shorter period of time. Fortunately for many of the names we've shorted in the past, we haven't really had to think to answer that question. Olam is different."

Shares for Olam, and Muddy Waters' target after that, US cellphone antenna operator American Towers, had not dropped as much as the shortseller's earlier targets, leading to talk that its influence has faded.

In a sign that its streak of lacklustre results is ending, however, Muddy Waters' latest report launched last Thursday against Chinese mobile services provider NQ Mobile led to its shares falling more than 60 per cent within an hour.

Temasek moving into the ring to support Olam was a move that the shortseller had not foreseen, Mr Block admitted.

" We looked at it from a purely economic standpoint, which is that it is not an investible company, and maybe we ignored the political elements of this, the psychological element, the issues that were more systemic in Singapore that could interest a sovereign in a bailout," he said.

Two weeks after Muddy Waters spoke out against Olam, Temasek, then the firm's second-largest shareholder, threw its weight behind Olam by agreeing not just to take up its pro-rata entitlement of Olam's US$1.25 billion bonds-cum-warrants rights issue, but also sub-underwrite it. The issue was eventually 1.1 times subscribed.

Temasek has also since then progressively increased its ownership of Olam, from an initial 16.3 per cent before the Muddy Waters attack to 24.07 per cent now.

In Mr Block's view, Temasek had stepped in because of the wider implications that an Olam collapse would have posed to the commodity-trading industry in Singapore.

" If Olam had failed, what would the banks have done with the other commodity houses that are borrowing in Singapore?" he said. " It's reasonable to assume that if the banks had to write off losses to Olam, you could have a real funding freeze for the commodity trading industry in Singapore. "

Temasek's spokesman Stephen Forshaw said the Singapore investment company's reason for investing in Olam remained the same: " We have been, and remain, supportive of its publicly known strategy to take the opportunity, in recent years, to add on more upstream and midstream capabilities and capacities.

" We also acknowledged that no business is without risks. But that said, at the time of the investment, we were comfortable with Olam's credit position and longer term prospects, and were very pleased to have another opportunity to invest in the company, alongside others."

 

It's ok bro, some times it's fun to have Some guessing view to take away some stress mood from stock market :) Huat ah

roostertan      ( Date: 31-Oct-2013 21:16) Posted: Lots of things are very dark and we may not know.  Just some guessing games. beginners      ( Date: 31-Oct-2013 19:32) Posted: Hmm... You mean the CFO run road and "sell" news to MW?

 

Lots of things are very dark and we may not know.  Just some guessing games.

beginners      ( Date: 31-Oct-2013 19:32) Posted: Hmm... You mean the CFO run road and "sell" news to MW? roostertan      ( Date: 31-Oct-2013 19:29) Posted: Thanks Bros Beginners and Vincente.    It does make me wonder whether the timing of their CFO resignation and few weeks later followed by Muddy Waters attacks is co-incidental or not.  Or is there some insider leakage of confidential substances which we may not aware of

 

Hmm... You mean the CFO run road and "sell" news to MW?

roostertan      ( Date: 31-Oct-2013 19:29) Posted: Thanks Bros Beginners and Vincente.    It does make me wonder whether the timing of their CFO resignation and few weeks later followed by Muddy Waters attacks is co-incidental or not.  Or is there some insider leakage of confidential substances which we may not aware of? vincente      ( Date: 31-Oct-2013 15:04) Posted: Sad to hear yr predicament.Shld have exited earlier then.Looking back, I remember a lot of gd intention sifus have given warning at that time during the MW saga and I count myself lucky to have avoided it altogether

 

Thanks Bros Beginners and Vincente.    It does make me wonder whether the timing of their CFO resignation and few weeks later followed by Muddy Waters attacks is

co-incidental or not.  Or is there some insider leakage of confidential substances which we may not aware of?

vincente      ( Date: 31-Oct-2013 15:04) Posted: Sad to hear yr predicament.Shld have exited earlier then.Looking back, I remember a lot of gd intention sifus have given warning at that time during the MW saga and I count myself lucky to have avoided it altogether. roostertan      ( Date: 30-Oct-2013 21:19) Posted: When Olam share price was at 2.40, the news released that their CFO has resigned.  Honestly, I was rather nervous when I heard that.    Also, not that I am been rascist, but, I do feel uncomfortable when I realised that the senior management team are all  indians.    Coupled with Temasek been involved in their investments make me even more terrified.  These are my personal heart feelings that I would like to share with all of you.  Sorry, if I am been too strong in my words.  Sure enough, the price plummeted from 2.40 till today after their CFO has resigned followed by Muddy Waters attacks.  I would not have ponder that moment and should have quickly released my holdings at 2.40 since strange feelings have  invaded me.  Sad to say, I  am  still holding to this baby till today.

 

Sad to hear yr predicament.Shld have exited earlier then.Looking back, I remember a lot of gd intention sifus have given warning at that time during the MW saga and I count myself lucky to have avoided it altogether.

roostertan      ( Date: 30-Oct-2013 21:19) Posted: When Olam share price was at 2.40, the news released that their CFO has resigned.  Honestly, I was rather nervous when I heard that.    Also, not that I am been rascist, but, I do feel uncomfortable when I realised that the senior management team are all  indians.    Coupled with Temasek been involved in their investments make me even more terrified.  These are my personal heart feelings that I would like to share with all of you.  Sorry, if I am been too strong in my words.  Sure enough, the price plummeted from 2.40 till today after their CFO has resigned followed by Muddy Waters attacks.  I would not have ponder that moment and should have quickly released my holdings at 2.40 since strange feelings have  invaded me.  Sad to say, I  am  still holding to this baby till today.  Rosesyrup      ( Date: 29-Oct-2013 13:57) Posted: Friend, you can ignore the thumb up/down system. I too  received many thumbs down, but I don't care.  I am  here to share and get info to earn money not to earn thumb up/down. I am currently in the money and I don't mind exiting if what you said were true. But the problem here is you keep posting something that cannot be substantiated. You started off with some exaggerated claim that Olam overhauled management team. In fact only 2 directors stepped down. I mean seriously.... Now you claimed that you heard from grapevine  shortists want to short this counter, but never tell where your grapevine extended from. Grapevine from your 10k net worth colleague and  billion net worth friends can be very different. We can't assess the strength of your claims don't even mention verify.   Best of all, you  mentioned MW's comment which was made months ago " OLAM not changing old way" . Negativity aside, I don't understand why you always choose to post some " news" that cannot be verified, I mean what's the point? And whenever I tried to verify your 'news' you never failed to  escape with  the answer 'your money you decide....mymoney...'. Come on,  I am just trying to verify things, how can I possible decide on where you use your money.  Your tendency to  avoid giving direct answer  is a mystery that I have yet to solve.    If you really think olam is really that bad, why don't you just short it and let us know  your TP and analysis? Don't you think it's more healthy to share objective analysis here rather than some rumor?   Anyway the only reason I still stay in this stock is that I am eye the big pie of $3.20. Now shortists you are welcome to thumb down me :

 

Bro don't get discourage. Who knows the Indian mgt can create happening! Just like the commonwealth game! Bridge, bed collapse, bird shit in the pool still able to complete the "mission impossible".

 

When Olam share price was at 2.40, the news released that their CFO has resigned.  Honestly, I was rather nervous when I heard that.    Also, not that I am been rascist, but, I do feel uncomfortable when I realised that the senior management team are all  indians.    Coupled with Temasek been involved in their investments make me even more terrified.  These are my personal heart feelings that I would like to share with all of you.  Sorry, if I am been too strong in my words.  Sure enough, the price plummeted from 2.40 till today after their CFO has resigned followed by Muddy Waters attacks.  I would not have ponder that moment and should have quickly released my holdings at 2.40 since strange feelings have  invaded me.  Sad to say, I  am  still holding to this baby till today. 

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 29-Oct-2013 13:57) Posted: Friend, you can ignore the thumb up/down system. I too  received many thumbs down, but I don't care.  I am  here to share and get info to earn money not to earn thumb up/down. I am currently in the money and I don't mind exiting if what you said were true. But the problem here is you keep posting something that cannot be substantiated. You started off with some exaggerated claim that Olam overhauled management team. In fact only 2 directors stepped down. I mean seriously.... Now you claimed that you heard from grapevine  shortists want to short this counter, but never tell where your grapevine extended from. Grapevine from your 10k net worth colleague and  billion net worth friends can be very different. We can't assess the strength of your claims don't even mention verify.   Best of all, you  mentioned MW's comment which was made months ago " OLAM not changing old way" . Negativity aside, I don't understand why you always choose to post some " news" that cannot be verified, I mean what's the point? And whenever I tried to verify your 'news' you never failed to  escape with  the answer 'your money you decide....mymoney...'. Come on,  I am just trying to verify things, how can I possible decide on where you use your money.  Your tendency to  avoid giving direct answer  is a mystery that I have yet to solve.    If you really think olam is really that bad, why don't you just short it and let us know  your TP and analysis? Don't you think it's more healthy to share objective analysis here rather than some rumor?   Anyway the only reason I still stay in this stock is that I am eye the big pie of $3.20. Now shortists you are welcome to thumb down me :) EZ3626      ( Date: 29-Oct-2013 08:39) Posted: This BB is still vunerable. I heard through the grapevine, the shortists are going to hoot this BB ..... they said this BB is going to be under attacked again.  As I have mentioned, too risky to enter (speaking for myself) ... shall watch and see as the day draws near.    Also, Muddy Water has posted some comments ... he is at it again. Agreed with roostertan it is their poor management.  Hope the management is vigilant ....

 

Amateurs......sigh.

 

Shall I give you a Spoon.

I share the same opinion as Dippyboy " Olam is going down below $0.50 .." watch and see

 

Yawn, your response is  within expectation. As usual, you still decided to move on to other arguments before clarifying the previous one.

If Dippyboy argument is the same as yours why would I prefer his over yours? Something worth pondering. Anyway, this should be my last response to your baseless claim.

Goodluck.

 

EZ3626      ( Date: 30-Oct-2013 01:04) Posted: Rosesyrup, like to hear sweet thing, Silly the content is the same, it is just the packaging is different.  Dippyboy is kind, this news is nothing new.. wonder how on earth you decide to buy Olam. Hope you didn't buy Olam because of what your parrot said or I like the name Olam. Hokkien sound like Oh Lam (hug). Like that you better sell ... listen to parrot. Singapore raise children not EZ still raise parrot. If not because of Temasek support you think the rights issue can go through .... Judicial Management liao Do you know how long is the window for Olam dividend ??? Very long ... please do your homework. By right want to leave, by left decide to stay :)

 

Rosesyrup, like to hear sweet thing, Silly the content is the same, it is just the packaging is different. 

Dippyboy is kind, this news is nothing new.. wonder how on earth you decide to buy Olam.

Hope you didn't buy Olam because of what your parrot said or I like the name Olam. Hokkien sound like Oh Lam (hug). Like that you better sell ... listen to parrot. Singapore raise children not EZ still raise parrot.

If not because of Temasek support you think the rights issue can go through .... Judicial Management liao

Do you know how long is the window for Olam dividend ??? Very long ... please do your homework. By right want to leave, by left decide to stay :)

 

Fair, I like your analysis. At least you are complete opposite of that EMZ guy.  Don't know who thumbs down you but I will thumbs up you just to encourage more logical analysis like yours- normally I don't bother with the thumb up/down system.

dippyboy      ( Date: 29-Oct-2013 23:57) Posted:   They paid a high price to Temasek rights support in the form of high interest and warrents. The total real returns are around 13% on top of the existing high finance cost for the remainding bonds and these will be first paid to them and not to ordinary shareholders. As of now since listed ,the cashflow is not positive and it has been spending more moola than it can generate from its investment. Along the way there are numerous operational difficulties in the vast investment in gabon and other farm sources it poured money in all these years. Ultimately it hopes all these investment will bring to fruits . To be fair, commodities as an asset class is not doing well globally but tide can turn with a synchoronised global recovery with the US leading the way after it fully deleverages in 5 years more. However there is a real risk of major difficulties in this period if china does goes to a recession pulling down europe. It is not comforting to know Olam consumes vast amount of cashflow to sustain these investment and real net return from them is yet to be fully paid back. True profitability is better gauged from real cashflow returns and EVA since inception. How much is the shareholder getting back on $1 invested since listed? Even if Olam does started generating net positive returns , most of them is first going to the bond holders to clear the debts. The question is, if the expected recovery in commodities doesnt come in this 5 years. Where is the new money to be coming from? New Bonds at reasonable interest is unlikely due to the rising usd and interest rates and poor sentiment given its history of promises. If things are still bad down the road , by then it will feel like its a ponzi scheme..... using new money at even higher interest to pay back old. Rights issue is very much the only way to repay previous bond holder to avert a default. I would like to pay only 50c per share to hold such risks.

 

  They paid a high price to Temasek rights support in the form of high interest and warrents. The total real returns are around 13% on top of the existing high finance cost for the remainding bonds and these will be first paid to them and not to ordinary shareholders. As of now since listed ,the cashflow is not positive and it has been spending more moola than it can generate from its investment. Along the way there are numerous operational difficulties in the vast investment in gabon and other farm sources it poured money in all these years. Ultimately it hopes all these investment will bring to fruits . To be fair, commodities as an asset class is not doing well globally but tide can turn with a synchoronised global recovery with the US leading the way after it fully deleverages in 5 years more.

However there is a real risk of major difficulties in this period if china does goes to a recession pulling down europe. It is not comforting to know Olam consumes vast amount of cashflow to sustain these investment and real net return from them is yet to be fully paid back. True profitability is better gauged from real cashflow returns and EVA since inception. How much is the shareholder getting back on $1 invested since listed? Even if Olam does started generating net positive returns , most of them is first going to the bond holders to clear the debts.

The question is, if the expected recovery in commodities doesnt come in this 5 years. Where is the new money to be coming from? New Bonds at reasonable interest is unlikely due to the rising usd and interest rates and poor sentiment given its history of promises. If things are still bad down the road , by then it will feel like its a ponzi scheme..... using new money at even higher interest to pay back old. Rights issue is very much the only way to repay previous bond holder to avert a default.

I would like to pay only 50c per share to hold such risks. 

 

A very unconstructive and irrational  post. Normally I would encourage people to stay and share regardless of their stands. But for your case, I guess you made the right choice to leave. Having you here any longer, this forum can soon be trading on rumors and fairy tales.

• You ikan belis or not, we don't care.  Why tell us?
• How you decide your money, we don't care. Why even mention?
• Do you even need to mentioned your lack of market power? Isn't it obvious?
• Only rumors that have certain level of  possibility can become facts, not all. I heard from my parrot  Olam can rise to $100 per share tomorrow, possible to become fact?  That's why we need your source. The source you provide is your anonymous friends =.=. My parrot has a lot of friends too, some them even claimed Olam can go up to 10million k per share.
• Market trade on rumors, true. But they don't trade on all rumors and they given different strength to rumours, that's why we need you to provide credible source.
• In fact we are not really arguing about this counter here, our argument seems to be on whether you should start substantiating your claims with credible sources and giving  sound arguments.
• I don't understand why you got so worked up and used word that demean our intelligence. We simply said (politely)  it is pointless to argue something that cannot be verified.
• BTW, you have yet to explain why you claimed Olam has not been rasing money the past 1 year when it did. And how is MW right regardless Olam raise money or not? Urge you to clarify yourselves, because such illogical statements do reflect a person's level of  (erm...erm)  " analysis" .
• Spot on, you are an enemy to fair flow of information.

If you ever want to post here again, remember to clarify your earlier arguments (highlighted in red). Otherwise don't bother jumping from claims to claims, when none of them is sound.

Just saying.

 

EZ3626      ( Date: 29-Oct-2013 23:12) Posted: I'm sure all who play with stock knows people buy or sell base on rumours, it is for the discerning to decide where it should go. As I have said this does not come from me ... I even gave you the source ... I am but a novice, a " ikan belis" ...   the market today went down not because of what I said .... plea...se [I am flattered]. How on earth do you want to contain what people are saying. The best thing to do is start doing your homework. Don't be 幼 稚 market will find it own level. If this isn't true there is nothing to be worry, but if it is true ... then you better be worried and take action. Arguing with me will not help the situation. By the time it is a FACT, game already over ...  This incident is vivid in the mind of everyone, when America WTC was destroyed ... whole world was caught by surprise, When the anniversary come, do you think ... the security will say, RELAX ah they will not do it again. On the contrary as the date draw near they have to beef up the security and deploy more manpower. Rest assured, the shortists have waited for such a time. It is not a time to turn a deaf ear. I am surprised that you have made me your enemy, and decide to shoot the messenger.   The trend setter is out there. Don't be fool .... there is nothing to " AGREED"   GorgeousOng said " My money I decide, Your money you decide"   Believe or not is up to you. Sayonara