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Let it be, cursing the market down is on trend now by many many, infact almost all traders! What shall we do???
singaporegal ( Date: 26-Nov-2008 19:22) Posted:
I feel that DBS should have done the pay/bonus cut BEFORE they conducted retrenchment. Then people would not have been so angry at them.
They got it the wrong way round. |
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I feel that DBS should have done the pay/bonus cut BEFORE they conducted retrenchment. Then people would not have been so angry at them.
They got it the wrong way round.
It looke somewhat like an inverted saucer with the right side 'ear' forming...
Quality of their assets deteriorating. As knightbridge said next qtr will show. Thread carefully.
From the way of retrenchment, pay cut and bonus cut. I suspect more write down from it investment. Look closer at the latest balance sheet, might find some pit hole. If not QTR still making profit retrench and cut pay so early?? kiasu and risk the wraith of ministry of labour???
Up to u to guess... Next qtr will show, cannot hide forever this is no JAPAN bank.
Oh no, another blue chip counter of mine with the great losses. I 'll certainly cut loss tomorrow switching to other counter with a relatively low and stable PTB ratio for long term holding.
Is DBS the Citigroup equivalent in Singapore? Maybe that's y it is free-falling, like Citigroup last week?
Hoho! I read that they need to raise more liquidity as compare to other local banks. Speculation in play too.
anyone know why DBS drops ?
DBS seems to be Singapore's Citigroup. The more news DBS present, the latest is about the pay cut and bonus cuts, the faster the share price drop.
If DBS keep generating news everyday, maybe the share price will drop to $3 like citigroup.
Talking about about keeping sufficient tier 1, what can be classified under tier 1? Can there be any changes to the classification, say tier 3 moving up to tier 2 in anyway?
I see. hmm, no more cracking my head today.
Taking super long week end. LWE, didn't hear this
after leaving service loh.
goondoo ( Date: 21-Nov-2008 08:42) Posted:
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Actually anything is possible with Citigroup dropping from US$55 to US4.40 last nite, more than 90% in less than 2 years.
But for Singapore, it is not as bad, so 1997/98 bottom at STI @800 is a probably lowest it can get where:
DBS $5, OCBC $2.50, UOB $6, this is about 50% of current price, possible if we go into great depression when Citigroup gets nationalized like AIG, and unemployment rate hit 20% in every country. STI should hit 800 again. Deja Vu, rewind 10 yr for Singapore, rewind 50 yr for US where GM, GE, C, BAC all get nationalized.
AK_Francis ( Date: 21-Nov-2008 01:21) Posted:
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ok, wat is the possible lowest, with your views, just to share?
time frame, no limit. can put in X factor, any, to justify analysis.
However, there is no right or wrong issue, just air out.
Any view in the forum is a good view. Thats all. |
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Actually anything is possible with Citigroup dropping from US$55 to US4.40 last nite, more than 90% in less than 2 years.
But for Singapore, it is not as bad, so 1997/98 bottom at STI @800 is a probably lowest it can get where:
DBS $5, OCBC $2.50, UOB $6, this is about 50% of current price, possible if we go into great depression when Citigroup gets nationalized like AIG, and unemployment rate hit 20% in every country. STI should hit 800 again. Deja Vu, rewind 10 yr for Singapore, rewind 50 yr for US where GM, GE, C, BAC all get nationalized.
AK_Francis ( Date: 21-Nov-2008 01:21) Posted:
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ok, wat is the possible lowest, with your views, just to share?
time frame, no limit. can put in X factor, any, to justify analysis.
However, there is no right or wrong issue, just air out.
Any view in the forum is a good view. Thats all.
goondoo ( Date: 21-Nov-2008 01:04) Posted:
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Bank can still operate at share price of $2, if within MAS regulations, ie sufficient tier 1 and CAGR.
But DBS with book value of $13 and trading above $10 for the past 5 years, if share price ever fall to $2 can only mean market feel the bank's book value per share is approaching zero or negative in the near future similar to what is happening to citigroup now.
And of course, if the book value is near zero, bank will fail CAGR and tier 1 and thus cannot operate anymore.
It simply means the share price can only drop to $2, if market foresees net assets (less liabilities) going below zero, and bank no longer meets CAGR, ie bank failure. Otherwise it is quite impossible to drop to $2. |
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ok, wat is the possible lowest, with your views, just to share?
time frame, no limit. can put in X factor, any, to justify analysis.
However, there is no right or wrong issue, just air out.
Any view in the forum is a good view. Thats all.
goondoo ( Date: 21-Nov-2008 01:04) Posted:
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Bank can still operate at share price of $2, if within MAS regulations, ie sufficient tier 1 and CAGR.
But DBS with book value of $13 and trading above $10 for the past 5 years, if share price ever fall to $2 can only mean market feel the bank's book value per share is approaching zero or negative in the near future similar to what is happening to citigroup now.
And of course, if the book value is near zero, bank will fail CAGR and tier 1 and thus cannot operate anymore.
It simply means the share price can only drop to $2, if market foresees net assets (less liabilities) going below zero, and bank no longer meets CAGR, ie bank failure. Otherwise it is quite impossible to drop to $2.
samuel_ng ( Date: 21-Nov-2008 00:45) Posted:
| Why can't the share price drop to $2? Can the bank still operate if the price drops below $2 |
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Bank can still operate at share price of $2, if within MAS regulations, ie sufficient tier 1 and CAGR.
But DBS with book value of $13 and trading above $10 for the past 5 years, if share price ever fall to $2 can only mean market feel the bank's book value per share is approaching zero or negative in the near future similar to what is happening to citigroup now.
And of course, if the book value is near zero, bank will fail CAGR and tier 1 and thus cannot operate anymore.
It simply means the share price can only drop to $2, if market foresees net assets (less liabilities) going below zero, and bank no longer meets CAGR, ie bank failure. Otherwise it is quite impossible to drop to $2.
samuel_ng ( Date: 21-Nov-2008 00:45) Posted:
Why can't the share price drop to $2? Can the bank still operate if the price drops below $2?
goondoo ( Date: 20-Nov-2008 09:17) Posted:
| Temasek only got a 28% stake in DBS.
Citigroup drop another 23% overnight to US$6.4, almost 90% drop from US$55 high.
Think Temasek throw a float to DBS prob only at $2, hope DBS will never reach $2, otherwise prob financial ruin for Singapore |
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Why can't the share price drop to $2? Can the bank still operate if the price drops below $2?
goondoo ( Date: 20-Nov-2008 09:17) Posted:
Temasek only got a 28% stake in DBS.
Citigroup drop another 23% overnight to US$6.4, almost 90% drop from US$55 high.
Think Temasek throw a float to DBS prob only at $2, hope DBS will never reach $2, otherwise prob financial ruin for Singapore.
AK_Francis ( Date: 20-Nov-2008 00:30) Posted:
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80% drop for DBS fr now, to 2.20. Thats gonna be Wave 4 in Fibo liao, for all counters.
Hope not loh. Tamasick got 45% steak in DBS loh. Of course a float will be thrown
to DBS, if it drowns.
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Temasek only got a 28% stake in DBS.
Citigroup drop another 23% overnight to US$6.4, almost 90% drop from US$55 high.
Think Temasek throw a float to DBS prob only at $2, hope DBS will never reach $2, otherwise prob financial ruin for Singapore.
AK_Francis ( Date: 20-Nov-2008 00:30) Posted:
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80% drop for DBS fr now, to 2.20. Thats gonna be Wave 4 in Fibo liao, for all counters.
Hope not loh. Tamasick got 45% steak in DBS loh. Of course a float will be thrown
to DBS, if it drowns.
goondoo ( Date: 19-Nov-2008 23:34) Posted:
Alot of DBS senior management are from Citibank and Citigroup, including the CEO, if I am not wrong.
Look at Citigroup share price, from $55 in 2007 to $8 now, drop of more than 80%.
Even now got rumours that Citigroup will go the AIG route and end up like AIG at $2 per share.
Citigroup's 1st step is to retrench staff, so is DBS.
So DBS share price is copying citigroup share price. Hope it will not drop to penny stock and join COSCO and Yangzijiang. Will become a laughing stock. |
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I think he's trying to link the 2 indicators together. But might not know how to explain it. Or worst, he might reading others analysis & copied to his post w/o knowing what is in the content. Confusing himself & others.
Fibonacci numbers & ratios
Elliot Wave uses fibonacci numbers as a part of its theory. What are fibonacci numbers? To get a sequence of fibonacci numbers you would add the previous number to the current number to get the next one. Eg. Fibonacci numbers are 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 and so on. After the first 4 digits, if you divide the current number to the previous one you will get a ratio of 1.618, eg. 89:55=1.618. Or if you divide the current number to the next number you get the ratio of 0.618, eg 55:89=0.618.
If you divide a fibonacci number by the number that precedes it two places you’ll get 2.618 accordingly. And if you divide a fibonacci number by a number 2 numbers following it, you’ll get the ratio of 0.382. Eg 13:34= 0.382.
What do fibonacci numbers have to do with Elliot Wave theory? Simply put – the fibonacci ratios, according to Elliot Wave theory, are the primary factor of the extent of price and time movements in ANY market. Main relationships can be found between the waves in the similar direction – eg. The length of 3rd wave is influenced by the length of 1st wave.
http://www.learning-to-invest.com/Introduction-Elliot-Wave-Principle-amp--Fibonacci-ratios--59.html
SupremeA ( Date: 20-Nov-2008 00:43) Posted:
| i tot waves were for elliot waves?
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i tot waves were for elliot waves?
80% drop for DBS fr now, to 2.20. Thats gonna be Wave 4 in Fibo liao, for all counters.
Hope not loh. Tamasick got 45% steak in DBS loh. Of course a float will be thrown
to DBS, if it drowns.
goondoo ( Date: 19-Nov-2008 23:34) Posted:
Alot of DBS senior management are from Citibank and Citigroup, including the CEO, if I am not wrong.
Look at Citigroup share price, from $55 in 2007 to $8 now, drop of more than 80%.
Even now got rumours that Citigroup will go the AIG route and end up like AIG at $2 per share.
Citigroup's 1st step is to retrench staff, so is DBS.
So DBS share price is copying citigroup share price. Hope it will not drop to penny stock and join COSCO and Yangzijiang. Will become a laughing stock. |
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