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YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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elfinchilde
Elite |
11-Nov-2007 17:31
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yzj only half way through its downtrend. if you look at sgx announcement, the primary trigger is Baring Asset Mgmt. they've been selling off their stake. (perhaps to satisfy redemptions back home? hit high of 2.74; any manager would have taken profit) their buy px was once at abt 1.8, again at abt 2.04 (26 sept). so can surmise that the first viable support is 2.04 or thereabouts. coincidences with the tech count of abt 2. wait for bottoming. FA-wise: Co's last half year report showed 62% increase in PAT (profit after tax) yoy. Some segments down, but ship orders are very strong, and cash flow is excellent. Will be included as STI component stock in jan 08. Plus, beijing olympics. Those are the catalysts in the future. For now, it's simply tracking the H shares in hongkong, which chionged up after the china minister said they'd allow local PRC investors into HK stocks; and then cooled the market by saying not so. fyi. not an inducement to buy/sell ah. those for shorting, the tandem counter yanlord might be a better option. williams not completely oversold yet. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
11-Nov-2007 17:23
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dow theory believes that there is a correlation between the DJIA and the dow jones transport index. when the divergence between the two is at a certain pt, the downtrend/change in trend is confirmed. it's apparently 99% accurate in predicting dow movement. believe cashiertan will be able to tell more abt it.... |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
11-Nov-2007 17:19
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hi...not yet to buy...RSI near overbought. might have a sudden sharp drop. overall long term trend is strongly up tho. so if you're afraid of missing the boat,, could always choose to go in a bit first, then when/if it drops, buy in again to DCA. 11th dec is Fed decision; futures show 64% likely to cut, up from 6% a week/weeks ago. So need to complete purchase by then. cheers! :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
07-Nov-2007 20:58
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hey singaporegal! *hugs* saw your msg in yzj. after i came back from hols, went almost immediately on a three week course. just concluded today. :) market looks weak. sian, shd have bought gold before i left. sigh. watching yzj and sembmar now...patience... |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
05-Nov-2007 19:59
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hey sporeguy, judging from market depth, 2.10 is very possible. support at 2.2, if that is broken, it's down. someone is concertedly letting go large lots. just wonder if its normal manipulation or really something fundamentally wrong with the stock that the directors are not saying yet. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
05-Nov-2007 19:46
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turnaround not yet lah...my estimate is around 18th nov. wait for macd to show bottoming; not just williams. williams alone tends to give false positive on yzj (cf its earlier charts). too much dumping going on. something fishy. wonder how come sgx never query. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
05-Nov-2007 13:47
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watching this baby too. :) not yet tho, dumping not done yet. does anyone know when its Q results are out? |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
24-Oct-2007 21:31
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as asterisk calls it, elfsongs. haha. damn tired out from attending course. this is elf's fav song, version by dusty springfield, cos i love the sadness in her voice. and the lyrics. jazz and blues have a complexity most modern pop songs lack. enjoy. :) http://www.ladyjayes.com/windmills.html |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
23-Oct-2007 10:28
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well, looking at busd data, appears as tho BBs are talking one thing and doing another. large lots are buy ups. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
23-Oct-2007 07:56
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shplayer, the tech count gives 5.1 likely target. max lowest possible 4.84. just fyi. :) and yea farmer, don't bother abt the titles; it's the quality of the engagements. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
21-Oct-2007 22:53
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does anyone have info on ara reits ipo? |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
21-Oct-2007 22:50
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yzj: stock peaking for now. large change might be imminent soon, bollies pinching in. could wait for williams to hit oversold and recover a bit before buying. consistent lead indicator for stock. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
21-Oct-2007 22:47
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hi all! back to biz...baseerahmed, how i called for cosco's 'looks set to continue': MACD long term is strong uptrend on reasonably high volume. note, that's longer term. For short term trading, even intraday, cosco can be predicted by: busd and pure bar charts, bollingers. perhaps not so much anything can happen, but that there are patterns, and cosco thus far has been relatively predictable in its movement. evidence: look at the 3 day breakouts via bollingers (ie, cuts the upper bollie). On SJ charts, bollies come with bar charts too, so: jun 11-13: jun 11 broke upper band, close of 3.38. morning of jun 12, gapped up on opening at 3.42, hit high of 3.48. jun 19-21: 19th broke upper bollie, close 3.58. morning jun 20, gapped up on opening at 3.68, hit high 4.04. jul 11-13: 11th broke bollie, close 4.64. morn jul 12 gapped up on opening 4.88, high 5.2. this pattern repeats. cf sept 28 to oct 2 and 17th oct to 19th oct. for those unable to see the patterns still, the conclusions can be drawn as such (pls feel free to put in your opinion; note these are just mine alone): 1) cosco breakouts occur in three day patterns. 2) day two tends to have a gap up on opening--if you find my cosco post, i had posted even before the day that cosco may gap up on opening on the 18th. which it did: 17 oct close was 7.8, 18th opening was 8.05. 3) the highs from opening of second day tend to be abt 20c from opening. the range is 10c to ~50c. So the high i had predicted was actually 8.25 for the 18th; but as a trader (not long term holder), i'd have opted to sell 8.1-8.15 to play safe. 4) despite the volatile intraday range, look at the one year charts: cosco is consistently up. nothing to indicate that this long term trend will not continue. I believe a couple of brokerage houses have called 12 mth targets for cosco at 8.6-8.8. my own tech count: this time ard, cosco high is approx 8.5 (the high of 8.2 shd be it), thereaft, a retracement is in the works. i do believe that after this retracement (note that there might not be a long term retracement), the count for cosco is actually > $9. look at busd and macro factors: the buy support is too strong. short term: after day 2, cosco tends to drop a bit, then follow it up with a regaining of strength. you see this same pattern on 18th and 19th oct. this counter is good for both short and long term plays; since the intraday volatility is high enough to make a profit. can watch out for it tmrw. if i may venture a guess... first hour will likely see dumping, thereupon a recovery (quick scalp might be possible, but this entirely depends on market tone and busd). but overall for this upcoming week, it should range between whatever its opening is, and ~7.7. (contra trap of T+5 in place from 18th). hope this helps... |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
17-Oct-2007 22:24
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ok, i generally do not like to give specific advice (since the more specific, the more one risks being wrong. haha), but might not be wise to short cosco tmrw. there's very, very strong buy support. look at the busd, you'll know what i mean. consistent 100 lots buy ups. the period from 1359 to 1421 hrs, for large lots traded, was all buy ups. only small fries selling. only later in the day abt 770 did you see larger lots selling (measly 50 lots sold in a few batches only). and closed with an 822 lot buy up. tmrw might gap up on opening if dow closes up. this is one for long term holding. the trade/short might not be worth since risk is too great for the thin reward... caveat emptor... |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
17-Oct-2007 22:20
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hey since77, thanks for the welcome. :) yea singaporegal, crazy market indeed. did anyone play cosco today? heehee. one of the most beautiful intrday breakouts i've seen. heehee. looks set to continue, too. ended the day with a 822 lot buy up at 7.8. cosco and yzj are tandem plays.... caveat emptor tho; might be a bit too high to chase. broke out alr. ok, gonna zzz soon. nites ppl! :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
16-Oct-2007 17:01
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hi choohian, good to see you too! :) market's kinda bleeding. hope ppl heeded rayphua's and victorf's call to stay out for now. think i posted in some other thread yest that market's peaking too... if you've rode the aug 17th crash to now, can consider exiting. time to prep for accumulation for the next 2 weeks to end nov. shplayer, yea, always a temptation to NOT buy some more wine! lol. yep, i miss singaporegal too! :)))) haha. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
16-Oct-2007 09:06
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hey, thanks for the welcome, kilroy. jacktherippers, do i know you? *bemused* |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
15-Oct-2007 22:41
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yah. the clock's kinda messed up now, like a Dali, perhaps... and hey, china's still growing. ok, gonna zzz. market's peaking soon. range bound for now. need to break 3,900 convincingly. locked in my blues already. nites all! |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
15-Oct-2007 22:33
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hm...we're likely somewhere between 12 o'clock and 1 o'clock now....remember a couple of months back, before 'credit squeeze' and 'subprime' were the buzz words, the catchphrase of the town then was 'awash in liquidity'. that's 11 o'clock.... opinions? |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
15-Oct-2007 22:30
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US on daylight saving. reset to 7 o'clock. haha. need to keep in mind that different parts of the world have different time zones....good post, mister kilroy. :) |
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