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| 31-Mar-2009 14:54 |
Midas
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DMG Buy Recommendation Midas: A sound long-term investment (BUY\S$0.43\Target S$0.73) Right place, right time. products and polyethylene pipes, is set to enjoy strong growth on the back of the railway sector. It will also get a boost from 32.5%-owned associate NPRT, being one of the four entities with a licence to assemble/produce Metro train cars in China. Midas Holdings, which has investments in aluminium alloy extrusionOrder book flow should remain robust going forward. S$120m, with deliveries stretching out over the next two years. NPRT has a much bigger order book, clocking up RMB4.5b worth of orders (784 train cars) for delivery between FY09 and FY11. With many more railway systems to be added in major cities and also connecting various cities, we are confident Midas and NPRT will be adding to their current tallies. Midas’ current order book is worthDirect beneficiary of the China stimulus package. the Ministry of Railways (MOR) for expansion of China’s existing railway system between FY09 and FY12, mostly for intercity train systems. As much as RMB600b will be spent in FY09 out of this RMB2 trillion. The MOR has also announced it will spend at least RMB500b on rolling stock alone in the next four years. We have estimated that Midas will see a RMB2b surge in orders, based on its 80% market share in AA train car body extrusion. Approximately RMB2 trillion is budgeted byStable earnings growth. S$144.5m, a CAGR of 24.5%. Despite the current credit and economic crisis, we believe Midas will continue its path of strong and stable earnings growth with the construction of a third AA production line and higher contributions from NPRT going forward. From FY04 to FY08, Midas grew its top line 140% from S$60.2m toValuation. applying a WACC of 15.5%, a beta of 1.1 and a terminal growth rate of 1%. At the last traded
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| 31-Mar-2009 14:48 |
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Kim Eng Buy recommendation 1) Midas – Plant Visit Note (James KOH 64321431) Previous day closing price: $0.415 Recommendation: Buy (maintained) Target price: $0.68 (maintained) Fruitful trip to China We visited Midas last week where we had a positive first-hand look at its aluminium alloy division in Jilin Province and the NPRT operations in Nanjing, PRC. In this visit, we also had insightful discussions with the local operations management about the business and industry prospects. Overall expansion plans appear on track. Promising progress of 3 rd extrusion line and downstream fabricationMidas is in the midst of installing its 3 from 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes. We now expect this to be operational by end 09/ early 10. Downstream fabrication machineries are also being installed at its new site, which we believe will put Midas further ahead of the competition when they are ready by 2H09. rd production line, which would increase its annual capacity32.5%-owned NPRT to step up a gear this year NPRT is in the midst of an aggressive capacity expansion plan, backed by its strong S$1b orderbook. Based on our discussion with the NPRT management, we believe the delivery schedule for this year will be 3-4 times higher than FY08. To cope with the increase, manpower has increased from 500 (end 2008) to 900 now. China Ministry of Railway to continue its train-set buying spree China’s MOR recently signed a deal with the China Northern Railway Group (CNR) for the purchase of 100 high-speed train sets. This is equivalent to 1,600 train cars or the requirement of about 16,000 tonnes of aluminium alloy extrusion products for its train bodies. Industry sources reveal that this is the harbinger for another 700 train set purchases over the next 3-5 years. Unstoppable momentum! NPRT’s delivery schedule for FY09 gives us optimism that our associate earnings estimates can be met. Given that organic expansion plans will likely only bear fruit for FY10, NPRT will be the main contributor to bottom-line growth for FY09. We have kept our estimates and target price of
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| 30-Jan-2009 18:08 |
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On track up alittle |
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| 29-Jan-2009 14:11 |
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I think it is about time for MIDAS to set new higher price for 2009. | ||||
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| 14-Jan-2009 13:49 |
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no need dinner, later my employer(u know who) will charge me for corruption...hope u make $ for cny and buy some goodies for your family!
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| 14-Jan-2009 13:23 |
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Yes. Sold too early. Thank alot. Not kopi. But dinner.
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| 14-Jan-2009 10:11 |
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Being as an audience for the Trick, sell in strength loh, if the trick looks good. Buy in dip, if d magician packing up n chow loh. Cheers.
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| 14-Jan-2009 09:25 |
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dun be too happy today as today up is to trick ppl to buy...afternoon the mkt will drop again and so take this opportunity to short to make some angpow $ for cny! | ||||
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| 13-Jan-2009 18:01 |
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Range Trading can profit when market is down.. opposite when market up. But risk is high when a sudden halt for good news annoucemnt will wipe clean the gain by doing naked shorting. (This one got institutional interest counter) Anyway, insider have been buying up at much much higher price over the years. 5 year track record, div record and fundamental due to the china gov spend have been good.. (Rather long than short on this one) Other stocks also dropped alot, can gain by shorting also.. But the risk is high on this one, history show it has many sudden upsurge also.. I vested since 28cent buying all the way up with afew cover short when it move up to fast.. (The up are sudden as well). But this is one of the counter to stay vested in at this price.. as sales looking to double in 2009.. (Doing range trading better be covered, naked is not advisable on this one) Prudent is the game, all it takes is one big surge like at 30cent to 37cent based on historical will wipe clean the profit. Check the historical data.. See many people become bankrupt before, no one is smarter than the market. I still believe 2009 Dec 31 price will be higher than the current still got 300 more days to result |
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| 13-Jan-2009 17:05 |
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lee, so u must buy me kopi liao! :)
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| 13-Jan-2009 16:48 |
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Chart normally use by MFT ( real FT using "ba qua" )
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| 13-Jan-2009 16:41 |
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hahahah....hahahaha...51.5c liao...make 3c X 500 lots = $15K! | ||||
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| 13-Jan-2009 15:00 |
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wah seh! 52.5c achieved liao lor! | ||||
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| 13-Jan-2009 14:22 |
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hey, think u got fooled by the chart liao...:)
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| 13-Jan-2009 14:21 |
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53c acheived! jia you and go to 52c by end of theday! | ||||
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| 13-Jan-2009 11:05 |
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on chart, it also says if this bugger cannot cross 55c, it will crash below 50c! now 53.5c liao. hope will drop to 52 today and dow crashes tonite, so tomolo below 50c got chance! | ||||
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| 13-Jan-2009 11:00 |
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Joining you short 20lots too
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| 13-Jan-2009 10:43 |
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Jangan tension, it looks steady leh. Got vol as well. |
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| 13-Jan-2009 10:03 |
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hahaha...midas puncture liao... | ||||
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| 13-Jan-2009 08:13 |
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wah piangz u very the braveheart to short when everyone bullish on midas. chart oso says buy le...
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